Free Football Tips 17th August 2013

Three games from the lower divisions in England and Scotland. Nothing from the Sky Bet Championship this weekend – looks very trappy.

Sky Bet League One

Crewe Alexandra v Tranmere Rovers

Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away

Crewe 11-2-7

The Alex were very unlucky not to beat Rotherham a couple of weeks ago – they conceded a couple of late goals after leading 3-1 for 86 minutes – but they don’t lose many at Gresty Road. Five of their eight home losses last season were against teams that finished above them, so if anything they’re a decent yardstick of which clubs may do well.

Tranmere 7-2-11

I mentioned them a couple of weeks ago. They lost their first game of the season at Walsall but Andy Robinson managed to score their first away goal in the league since February.

Head to Head in the league at Crewe

Crewe have won ten of the last 20 games and haven’t lost any of the last six. Tranmere’s last win was in October 1999, when both teams were in the second tier; Crewe escaped relegation by five points that season. If you’re thinking of playing an Asian handicap, Crewe’s victories in that 20 game sequence have been by an average of 1.6 goals

Goals

Leaving this alone, but 0-0 looks unlikely.

Verdict

I think Tranmere might have to wait a while for their first away victory since March, but the aspect of this game that concerns me the most is that Rovers have now lost seven straight away games. They lost eight in the middle of the 2011/12 season, so they are at least capable of doing that, but a draw cannot be ruled out at all. Look back at the ‘last 20’ section – not many draws there are there? Having said that, there have been a few in the head to head category, but the significant fact is that there haven’t been consecutive draws between these two in the league at Crewe since the mid 1930s. Crewe back to lay looks like the way forward.

Crewe 2, Tranmere 1. Two goals from the highly rated Ryan Colclough and a red card for Tranmere’s Danny Holmes.

Sky Bet League 2

Cheltenham Town v Plymouth Argyle

Anyone referring to this game as a West Country derby needs to take their GCSE Geography again – it’s like saying Arsenal v Aston Villa is a London or a Midlands derby…

Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away

Cheltenham: 12-8-0

RED ALERT: Cheltenham haven’t lost a regular season home game for almost a year (3-1 against Southend on 15th September 2012) so they’re due a defeat. The big question is whether Plymouth are up to the challenge.

Plymouth: 4-4-12

Plymouth lost all but two of their away games against sides that finished in the top ten last season and half of those four wins came against Barnet and Aldershot, who were eventually relegated. From that we can deduce that Argyle aren’t the best of teams away from home

Head to Head in the League at Cheltenham

The hosts have won four of the six meetings at Whaddon Road since Cheltenham joined the football league; Plymouth’s single win came in August 2002 – at the end of that season Cheltenham were relegated.

Goals

Looks low to me. Cheltenham are tight at home (11 clean sheets in the last 20 games) whilst Plymouth failed to score in nine of their last 20 aways. 0-0 looks highly unlikely.

Verdict

This looks like one way traffic to me. The only cloud on the horizon is the lack of home defeats at Cheltenham but I don’t see any particular threat from Plymouth. Cheltenham back to lay, but with a lower lay price than usual – let’s say 1.29 rather than 1.49.

Cheltenham 1, Plymouth 3. That Red Alert would have been worth noticing. If any more come up this season I’ll change my advice accordingly.

Scottish League 1

Brechin City v East Fife

NB will not be available for trading on Betfair. I filled in a customer questionnaire for them this week and in the section ‘Are there any improvements you’d like to see’ I added ‘in play markets for the Scottish lower leagues’.

Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away

Brechin: 12-2-6

Between the end of October and the end of March, Brechin won seven home games in a row. Although that form was unsustainable in the long run, they only lost three of their last seven at home. Two of the defeats in that sequence were against promotion rivals.

East Fife: 4-4-12

Struggled mightily on the road last season; last away win was at Ayr ten days before Christmas and they only picked up three points from their last ten games.

Head To Head In The League At Brechin

Another streaky pattern – Brechin have won the last two games, but before those victories East Fife had won four straight. Worth mentioning that there hasn’t been a draw between the two clubs at Brechin for over a decade but the patterns here indicate strongly that the hosts won’t lose.

Goals

Over 2.5 goals looks inevitable, but is currently uncompetitively priced and can’t be traded in play. Brechin and their opponents have averaged exactly four goals per game over their last 20 homes (including a nine, a seven and two six goal games) whilst East Fife’s last 20 aways have produced an average of 3.45 goals (including an eight and six goal games). In their last meeting, Brechin won 6-0.

Verdict

I think the general strategy for untradeable games like this in the Scottish lower divisions this season is to lay the visitors – at least that way you’re keeping two of the three possible outcomes onside. So I’m recommending laying East Fife.

Brechin 2, East Fife 0

 

Free Football Tips: Sky Bet Championship, Sky Bet League 2 and Scottish League 1

All games are 3:00pm BST kickoffs unless stated.

Sky Bet Championship

Brighton & Hove Albion v Derby County

Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away

Brighton: 9-8-3

I’m not including Brighton’s defeat in the playoff semi finals – I count those as cup games – and they lost at home to Newport County in the Capital One Cup on Tuesday night, but I’m really not that bothered by either of those results. The fact is that the Seagulls haven’t lost a regular season league game in 2013.

Derby 4-5-11

The Rams got some positive coverage in a few of the previews I’ve read recently, but I think they’ve been overrated as their away form last season was very poor. Three wins since the end of last September simply isn’t very good at all and the Rams lost all but one of their away games against the top six sides in the Championship last season.

Head to Head (at Brighton in the Football League only)

Clear advantage for the hosts (8-1-4), with the only draw coming in November 2005 – Brighton were relegated at the end of the season whilst Derby finished 20^th. I think it’s fair to say that both sides have improved since then. One thing worth mentioning: Brighton haven’t beaten Derby three times in a row since a three game period between April 1959 and December 1960. The Seagulls are on a two game streak.

Goals

Not interested today, but under 2.5 looks likely.

Verdict

Back to lay trade for Brighton and if you’re feeling flush and don’t mind taking a hit if it goes wrong lay Derby.

Result: Brighton 1, Derby 2. The hosts took the lead and I very nearly came close to having the lay on Brighton matched, but the game went Derby’s way. It may indicate that these teams could be going in different directions, but it’s far too early to tell yet.

Charlton Athletic v Middlesbrough

Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away

Charlton 7-5-8

The Addicks managed to win or draw more games than they lost over the last 20 games and finished last season well (four wins on the bounce). Can they win five home league games in a row? They managed it at the end of 2011/12 when they were promoted from League One.

Middlesbrough 5-2-13

Ouch. Boro last won away when everyone was doing their Christmas shopping and only picked up one point from their last twelve aways. Due a road win, but see below.

Head to head in the league at Charlton

Middlesbrough have won the last two meetings fairly convincingly, but there hasn’t been a three game consecutive sequence (ie three home wins, three draws etc.) since Charlton won four straight between April 1951 and September 1953. That strongly suggests that Boro won’t win this game.

Goals

Low scoring, but the intriguing aspect here is Middlesbrough’s inability to score at Charlton. In the last 20 games they’ve failed to score in half of them. Boro have also failed to find the back of the net in eight of their last 20 road games, but Charlton have only kept one clean sheet in their last 20 games. Both teams to score and over 2.5 may be worth keeping onside in this one, but that’s not a recommendation.

Verdict

Lay Middlesbrough, who have more or less started this season in the same way they finished 2012/2013. I’m confident Charlton probably won’t lose, but they were too inconsistent at home last season for me to recommend backing them outright – another way of looking at their 7-5-8 record is that they failed to win 13 of their last 20 games last season. However, if the Addicks win this game, I’d be looking for them to have a decent season in the Championship.

Result: Charlton 0, Middlesbrough 1. I was right to have worries about Charlton yesterday, but once again it’s early days.

(Championship game to watch out for: Leicester v Leeds, which is on Sunday at 4:30pm. Looking for a potential Leicester win.)

Sky Bet League 2

Burton Albion v Rochdale

Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away

Burton 15-3-2

A very strong end to the season until the Brewers ran into Bradford City in the playoffs. Only lost once at home last season to sides that finished in the top half, against Chesterfield last September.

Rochdale 7-4-9

Only won two of their last ten aways, but won at both Gillingham and Rotherham earlier last season.

Head to Head in the League at Burton

Only three games to go on, but Rochdale have never won at Burton in the league. I think I’ll file that in the ‘there’s always a first time’ section.

Goals

No idea, not enough head to head to make any decision anyway.

Verdict

Similar approach to the Brighton/Derby game above. Can’t see Rochdale winning, so it’s a back to lay for Burton Albion with a straight lay on Rochdale if you fancy it.

Result: Burton 1, Rochdale 0. The lay on Burton was matched when Peter Cavanaugh was sent off after 7 minutes and a poor afternoon for Dale got worse when Olly Lancashire scored an own goal just before half time.

Scottish League Division 1

Another unnecessary name change, but there were go.

Stenhousemuir v Stranraer

NB: this game is not going in play on Betfair, so trading is unavailable.

Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away

Stenhousemuir 9-5-6

Don’t lose at home that often, although they lost their last game at Ochilview last season – to Stranraer!

Stranraer 3-3-14

Haven’t won consecutive away games at this level since 2005.

Head To Head In The League at Stenhousemuir

Red alert: The hosts haven’t beaten Stranraer at home since December 2002 (four games since then) and over the last 18 meetings Stranraer have never won back to back games at Stenhousemuir. If I was looking at this game purely in HTH terms I’d say lay Stranraer.

Goals

Looks lowish to me, but once again that’s not the angle today so I’ll leave it.

Verdict

Stranraer look weak in this game and I think I’d have been happier backing Stenhousemuir if they’d had a better record against today’s visitors. The angle I like is that although Stranraer have a decent record at Ochilview Park, they’ve not won consecutive games there. Lay Stranraer.

Result: John Gemmill’s strike after 31 minutes ensured three points for Stenhousemuir and another win for the day.

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Free Football Tips For Saturday 12th January 2013

More paper traded contrarian tips this weekend, although I’m thinking of introducing min stakes in a couple of weeks. However I need a way to whittle this list down as there are far too many games on it: eliminating competitions I don’t cover would be what I’d normally do, but there are signs that including an extra couple of leagues might be more profitable. The big problem is the lack of in play markets in the Scottish Lower Leagues.

No goals bets today…as you can see from the list below, I was occupied by something else 😉

Home Wins

Barnsley, Middlesbrough, Bournemouth, Albion Rovers (highest price for a home win I’ve seen for a while), Arbroath, Forfar, Stenhousemuir and Clyde.

Barnsley, Forfar and Clyde all came through. Arbroath’s game was postponed. 3/7

Draws

Brighton, Charlton, Huddersfield, Oldham, Cheltenham, Chesterfield, Fleetwood, Dumbarton (much bigger price for a draw than average), Livingston, AEK Athens, Troyes, Evian, Nancy and Nacional de Madeira

Huddersfield and Nancy were the only successes: 2/14 is a pretty poor return.

Away Wins

Peterborough, Bury, Wycombe, Accrington, Rochdale, Southend, Port Vale, Morecambe and Barnet (biggest price from those games)

Port Vale & Barnet both won: 2/9

Double Chance

Draw or Millwall, Draw or Doncaster (lowest price on this list: should be about 1.50), Draw or Swansea, Reading or Draw, Stoke or Draw, Draw or Airdrie United, Draw or Cowdenbeath, Levadiakos or Draw, Draw or Lorient, Draw or Bordeaux

Millwall, Doncaster, Swansea, Reading, Airdrie and Bordeaux all came through: 6/10

Overall: 13 wins from 40 isn’t great, but the away wins plus the double chances would’ve generated a good profit. Something to think about.

 

Free Tips For 29th December 2012

Rough and ready today due to travel plans, with a dose of contrarianism added 😉

Double Chance Contrarianism

All of these should be played as draw/away – the favourites in some of these games will be too short and we’re looking for surprise results.

12:30pm GMT

nPower Championship

Huddersfield v Sheffield Wednesday

Huddersfield 0, Sheffield Wednesday 0

3:00pm

Premier League

Stoke v Southampton

Stoke 3, Southampton 3

League 1

Sheffield United v Hartlepool

Sheffield United 2, Hartlepool 3

League 2

Chesterfield v Morecambe

Chesterfield 1, Morecambe 1

Scottish League Division 1

Falkirk v Dumbarton

Falkirk 3, Dumbarton 4

Raith v Cowdenbeath

Raith 2, Cowdenbeath 2

Scottish League Division 2

Arbroath v Albion Rovers

Arbroath 2, Albion Rovers 1

Scottish League Division 3

Peterhead v East Stirling

Peterhead 2, East Stirling 0

5:30pm

Premier League

Arsenal v Newcastle

Arsenal 7, Newcastle 3

Over 2.5 Goals

Should all stand a decent chance of >2.5 goals.

Premier League

3:00pm

Manchester United v WBA

Manchester United 2, WBA 0

nPower Championship

Bristol City v Peterborough

Bristol City 4, Peterborough 2

Burnley v Leicester

Burnley 0, Leicester 1

League 2

Rotherham v Accrington Stanley

Rotherham 4, Accrington Stanley 1

Scottish Premier League

St Johnstone v Inverness Caledonian Thistle

St Johnstone 0, Inverness Caledonian Thistle 0

Scottish Division 1

Livingston v Hamilton

Game Postponed

Scottish Division 2

Forfar v East Fife

Forfar 3, East Fife 2

Scottish Division 3

Annan v Elgin

Annan 2, Elgin 0

Premier League

5:20pm

Arsenal v Newcastle

Arsenal 7, Newcastle 3

 

Free Tips For Saturday 18th February

Games from nPower Championship and Belgium this weekend, I’ve also included some games from Scotland at the end of the post that came up via the ‘rough and ready’ method I occasionally use – the figures are H/D/A for the ten most recent games. In some cases that might be less than ten, but it’s always more than five.

nPower Championship

3:00pm

Leeds United v Doncaster

Leeds are potentially home banker material, but with five defeats and only three wins in the last ten games at Elland Road I’m afraid I can’t trust them. Doncaster’s position is easier to assess: eight defeats in their last ten games away from home.

Although I think Doncaster are certainties for relegation, I hadn’t realised how poor Leeds’ home record was until I was researching this game and although they took action when Simon Grayson was dismissed, if their long term form isn’t turned around they could struggle in 2012/13.

Recommendation: lay Doncaster. This is the tenth league game between these two at Leeds and Doncaster have only won there on one occasion.

Result: Leeds 3, Doncaster 2. The visitors actually took the lead but Leeds scored the winner nine minutes into injury time.

Crystal Palace v Watford

Goals bet – under 3.5 goals. 15 of the last 20 league games between these clubs at Selhurst Park have finished under 3.5 goals and the most common scorelines within those games reflect this. Looking back at Palace’s last 20 home league games, only two of them finished with more than 3.5 goals and you have to go back to last March to find the most recent one. Watford’s away record over the past year is similar.

Result: Palace 4. Watford 0. Fail 😦

Scottish Football League (all 3:00pm)

Division 1

Ross County v Ayr United

Last 10: 6-3-1

Result: 1-1

Division 2

Airdrie United v Stenhousemuir

Last 7: 6-1-0 (so watch out for the unexpected Stenny win, even though they’ve only won three of their last ten aways and have lost four of their last six on the road.)

Result: Airdrie 0, Stenhousemuir 3!

Dumbarton v Albion Rovers

Last 10: 7-2-1

Result: Dumbarton 1, Albion Rovers 0

Belgian Jupiler League

7:00pm

Mechelen v Beerschot

In some respects I’d actually be happier to recommend Mechelen as home bankers – they’ve not lost any of their last seven home games, while Beerschot have lost four straight away matches and have only won one of their least five trips to Achter de Kazerne.

The second part of the bet is over 1.5 goals. Eight of the last nine games between these two at Mechelen have been over (and occasionally comfortably over – the average for those nine games is exactly 3.0) and a long term look at Mechelen’s home form and Beerschot’s away form indicates a goal expectancy of around 2.7 goals.

Recommendation: lay Beerschot, back over 1.5 goals and both teams to score.

Result: Mechelen 2, Beerschot 1. So all three landed.

Mons v Genk

Over 1.5 goals. All of Mons’ home games have featured more than 1.5 goals – they’ve not kept a home clean sheet since they were promoted; Genk have only kept two clean sheets on the road this season. Both teams to score is also viable in this game but I’d stay well away from 2.5 and 3.5 goals markets as 1-1 is not outside the realms of possibility.

Result: Mons 1, Genk 2.

Will be more Belgian tips plus some Portuguese games for Sunday, so I’m off to sort those out now.

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English and Scottish Tips For The Weekend

OK – at the very least most of these should all be games where the away side may not win, but there are a couple where the absence of drawn games indicates that the draw should be laid or some kind of dutch/double chance may be the better option. I’ll mark those with an asterisk*.

Saturday 27th August

Premier League

12:00pm

Aston Villa v Wolves

I’ll be surprised if Wolves win this – last ten league games at Villa Park are 5-3-2 and Wolves haven’t won consecutive league games there since the late 1950s. Both teams to score could be worth a look.

Result: 0-0

5:30pm

Liverpool v Bolton

Liverpool have won nine of the last ten meetings at Anfield and Bolton haven’t beaten Liverpool in the league in an away game since January 1954. Could be a low scoring game, especially as Bolton seem to have trouble scoring at Anfield: any scoreline under 3.5 goals where the away side doesn’t score might be worth dutching.

Result: Liverpool 3, Bolton 1

The games below are all traditional 3:oopm kick offs:

Championship

Middlesbrough v Coventry

The Sky Blues have only won once at Middlesbrough in the last ten games.

Result: Middlesbrough 1, Coventry 1

Millwall v Barnsley*

Lay the draw – Millwall’s last ten league games against the Tykes in South London have finished 6-1-3

Result: 1-1. Ah well 😉

League 1

Brentford v Tranmere

5-3-2 to Brentford in the league at Griffin Park.

Result: Brentford 0, Tranmere 2. Interesting!

Colchester v Oldham

4-4-2 to Colchester, Oldham haven’t won any of the last six.

Result: Colchester 4, Oldham 1

Rochdale v Hartlepool

6-2-2 to Rochdale in the league at Spotland and similar to Oldham’s record at Colchester, the Monkey Hangers have failed to win any of the last six encounters in Lancashire. It’s also tempting to think that Dale’s 2-0 win at QPR in the Carling Cup might have raised their morale a few notches.

Result: Rochdale 1, Hartlepool 3

League 2

Accrington Stanley v Burton

4-1-1 to Stanley, going back to their game in the Unibond Premier in December 2001. Both clubs have come a long way since then.

Result: Stanley 2, Burton 1

Scottish Division 1

Dundee v Greenock Morton

Worth pointing out that Morton haven’t won at Dens Park since November 1997: last ten league games there have finished 7-2-1 in Dundee’s favour.

Result: Dundee 0, Morton 1 – oops!

Falkirk v Ross County*

Possible draw lay – only one tied game between these two in the last ten seasons when Falkirk have been at home in the league.

Result: Falkirk 1, Ross 1

Scottish Division 2

East Fife v Dumbarton*

Lay the draw, but be aware that East Fife have only won three of the last six league games at Bayview. Might be worth dutching both teams draw no bet.

East Fife 0, Dumbarton 6. I’ll be honest and say I wasn’t expecting that! Still, laying the draw was the right play…

Scottish Division 3

Alloa v Peterhead

5-3-2 record for Alloa when they’re at home to Peterhead in the league.

Result: Alloa 2, Peterhead 1

Elgin v East Stirling*

No draws in the last ten league games at Elgin, so laying East Stirling draw no bet is the call.

Elgin 2, East Stirling 0

Queens Park v Berwick*

See Elgin v East Stirling – lay the draw as the ten game league record is 5-0-5, which is pretty clear cut IMHO.

Result: and the draw magnet continues – 1-1.

Sunday 28th August

Scottish Premier League

3:00pm

Rangers v Aberdeen

Only worth laying Aberdeen draw no bet if the price falls below 9.0 on the exchanges. No point in going anywhere near it otherwise.

Result: Rangers 2, Aberdeen 0

3:45pm

Hearts v Hibernian

Premier League

4:00pm

Manchester United v Arsenal

6-2-2 to United over the last ten Premier League games at Old Trafford but the stat I like the best is that if you count Man U, Man City, Arsenal and Spurs as the top four teams from last season then the away sides in games between them should be an automatic lay. So far this season all we’ve found out is that Arsenal are better than Udinese. Additionally, under 3.5 goals could be nailed on here.

Half time: United 3, Arsenal 1. At the moment, Arsenal have been lucky to get one.

 

Free Tips For Saturday 13th August

Rough and Ready Tips For England and Scotland this weekend. At the very least, back the away team DNB (draw no bet) if available. Unfortunately I didn’t have time to run a full analysis for the European leagues this weekend but with any luck most of these should come in.

Premier League

Liverpool v Sunderland

Sunderland haven’t won at Anfield since October 1983.

Result: 1-1

Championship

Watford v Derby County

Derby have won only one of their last ten trips to Vicarage Road.

Result: Watford 0, Derby 1

The following Scottish games are worth considering, but liquidity could be a problem.

Scottish Premier League

Celtic v Dundee United

Might have to be patient, but it should be worth waiting for. United haven’t won at Celtic since January 1993.

Result: Celtic 5, Dundee United 1

Hearts v Aberdeen

Aberdeen have won two of the last ten games at Tynecastle.

Result: Hearts 3, Aberdeen 0

Scottish First Division

Falkirk v Partick Thistle

Similar story as Hearts v Aberdeen – Partick have only won two of the last ten games at Falkirk.

Result: Falkirk 2, Partick Thistle 1

Scottish Third Division

Berwick Rangers v East Stirlingshire

And again…East Stirlingshire have only won two of the last ten games at Shielfield Park.

Result: Berwick Rangers 4, East Stirlingshire 2

 

Free Tips For 19th April

A couple of draw no bet recommendations today.

These came up via the ‘rough and ready’ method so I wouldn’t stake any more than ten of whatever your local currency is on them. Both kick off at 7:45pm GMT, Livingstone would be my home bankers if I was looking for an outright win.

nPower League 1

Tranmere v Notts County

Result: Tranmere 0, Notts County 1

Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 2

7:45pm

LIVINGSTONE v Ayr

Result: Livingstone 3, Ayr 2

 

>Something For The Weekend 2/10/2010

>Last full set of games before the next international break, I’m actually going to cautiously recommend an away win this weekend as well as give you a few games to avoid. Assume that the Strategy With No Name should be used in all games – apart from one notable exception, which I’ll come to in a minute. All games kick off at 3pm GMT on Saturday afternoon.

nPower Championship
Doncaster Rovers v Nottingham Forest
The price for a Doncaster win is tempting, especially as they’ve won three of the last four league meetings between these two in South Yorkshire. Forest haven’t scored at Doncaster since the last time they won there – a 2-1 win in March 2006 – and although a Doncaster clean sheet might be possible under 2.5 goals might be the punt that lands the cash.

Additional information: 75% of games in the Championship have resulted in home wins/draws with an average of 2.74 goals per game…for which we have to thank Leeds and Preston. I’ve no idea when the last 4-6 game was, but Barnet 4, Crewe 7 happened nearly 20 years ago.

nPower League 2
Macclesfield Town v Northampton Town
This is the notable exception I mentioned above but it does come with a word of warning. Northampton have won five of the six league games between these two at Moss Rose since Macclesfield joined the Football League. Having said that, Macclesfield’s home form is poor (five wins in the last 20 home league games) and the last time they won at home and Northampton won away was in April.

I don’t normally go overboard on away wins but a Northampton win could be worth it even though I advised against them in their last away game, as does Under 2.5 goals.

Additional information: 75% of games in League 1 have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.42 goals per game. The relevant stat to this game is that 63% of games in League 1 have resulted in draws/away wins, which would be equivalent of decimal odds of 1.58 (4/7) – the best current price for Northampton/draw is 1.5 (1/2), which is no value whatsoever.

Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 1
Dundee v Morton
Another Dundee clean sheet (if you can find prices for it) looks possible but I’m going to stick my neck out and predict a Dundee win, based on the fact that Morton have only scored four goals at Dens Park in their last ten league meetings. Dundee have a very stingy defence, so under 2.5 goals looks a good bet but it may be even lower than that. 

Additional information: 74% of games in the Scottish First Division have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.31 goals per game.

Leave Them Alone
Sunderland v Manchester United
United have a tremendous record at Sunderland (only one defeat in the last ten meetings) but Sunderland are very impressive at the Stadium of Light (only two defeats in the last 20 Premiership games). Could go either way, although Sunderland and the draw are good value. Might be under 2.5 goals but don’t quote me.

West Ham United v Fulham
Touched on Fulham’s poor away record in the Premiership last weekend and their trip across London won’t be one they’re looking forward to, but there are some contradictory signs here. Fulham have won two of the last ten games at Upton Park in the league (last win November 2001, six games ago), but although they haven’t won away this season they’ve not yet lost on their travels either. Fulham’s long term away form may be poor but it is consistent…which can’t be said about West Ham’s home form as they’ve gone backwards.

Tranmere Rovers v Brighton
Last Brighton win on the Wirral was in September 1976 – in the seven league meetings at Tranmere since then, Rovers have won five straight. Could be a surprise for Tranmere but Brighton have only lost twice in their last ten away games in League 1, so this is actually a bit of a puzzle along the same lines as Sunderland v Manchester United. May be a low scoring game.

Queen Of The South v Dunfermline
The Doonhamers’ 2-0 win over Dunfermline last March was time that the hosts had beaten the Pars since the 85/6 season at Palmerston Park – and that was after they’d lost six of the next nine encounters. Dunfermline have only lost once in the league this season (2-0 at Raith Rovers) and although I’d be surprised if they lost this game, I’ve no idea how this might turn out.