Free Football Tips For Saturday 12th January 2013

More paper traded contrarian tips this weekend, although I’m thinking of introducing min stakes in a couple of weeks. However I need a way to whittle this list down as there are far too many games on it: eliminating competitions I don’t cover would be what I’d normally do, but there are signs that including an extra couple of leagues might be more profitable. The big problem is the lack of in play markets in the Scottish Lower Leagues.

No goals bets today…as you can see from the list below, I was occupied by something else 😉

Home Wins

Barnsley, Middlesbrough, Bournemouth, Albion Rovers (highest price for a home win I’ve seen for a while), Arbroath, Forfar, Stenhousemuir and Clyde.

Barnsley, Forfar and Clyde all came through. Arbroath’s game was postponed. 3/7

Draws

Brighton, Charlton, Huddersfield, Oldham, Cheltenham, Chesterfield, Fleetwood, Dumbarton (much bigger price for a draw than average), Livingston, AEK Athens, Troyes, Evian, Nancy and Nacional de Madeira

Huddersfield and Nancy were the only successes: 2/14 is a pretty poor return.

Away Wins

Peterborough, Bury, Wycombe, Accrington, Rochdale, Southend, Port Vale, Morecambe and Barnet (biggest price from those games)

Port Vale & Barnet both won: 2/9

Double Chance

Draw or Millwall, Draw or Doncaster (lowest price on this list: should be about 1.50), Draw or Swansea, Reading or Draw, Stoke or Draw, Draw or Airdrie United, Draw or Cowdenbeath, Levadiakos or Draw, Draw or Lorient, Draw or Bordeaux

Millwall, Doncaster, Swansea, Reading, Airdrie and Bordeaux all came through: 6/10

Overall: 13 wins from 40 isn’t great, but the away wins plus the double chances would’ve generated a good profit. Something to think about.

 

Free Tips For 29th December 2012

Rough and ready today due to travel plans, with a dose of contrarianism added 😉

Double Chance Contrarianism

All of these should be played as draw/away – the favourites in some of these games will be too short and we’re looking for surprise results.

12:30pm GMT

nPower Championship

Huddersfield v Sheffield Wednesday

Huddersfield 0, Sheffield Wednesday 0

3:00pm

Premier League

Stoke v Southampton

Stoke 3, Southampton 3

League 1

Sheffield United v Hartlepool

Sheffield United 2, Hartlepool 3

League 2

Chesterfield v Morecambe

Chesterfield 1, Morecambe 1

Scottish League Division 1

Falkirk v Dumbarton

Falkirk 3, Dumbarton 4

Raith v Cowdenbeath

Raith 2, Cowdenbeath 2

Scottish League Division 2

Arbroath v Albion Rovers

Arbroath 2, Albion Rovers 1

Scottish League Division 3

Peterhead v East Stirling

Peterhead 2, East Stirling 0

5:30pm

Premier League

Arsenal v Newcastle

Arsenal 7, Newcastle 3

Over 2.5 Goals

Should all stand a decent chance of >2.5 goals.

Premier League

3:00pm

Manchester United v WBA

Manchester United 2, WBA 0

nPower Championship

Bristol City v Peterborough

Bristol City 4, Peterborough 2

Burnley v Leicester

Burnley 0, Leicester 1

League 2

Rotherham v Accrington Stanley

Rotherham 4, Accrington Stanley 1

Scottish Premier League

St Johnstone v Inverness Caledonian Thistle

St Johnstone 0, Inverness Caledonian Thistle 0

Scottish Division 1

Livingston v Hamilton

Game Postponed

Scottish Division 2

Forfar v East Fife

Forfar 3, East Fife 2

Scottish Division 3

Annan v Elgin

Annan 2, Elgin 0

Premier League

5:20pm

Arsenal v Newcastle

Arsenal 7, Newcastle 3

 

UK Football Tips For Saturday 1st October

October. More like July in the UK 😉

Oppose the away team draw no bet unless stated, the x-x-x sequence is the WDL record in the last ten league games at the home team. Milton Keynes Dons should be today’s potential home banker but I think Notts have the potential to nick a point there so I’m recommending Stranraer instead: all kick off at 3pm.

Championship

Leeds v Portsmouth

6-2-2 but only two league meetings at Elland Road in the last decade, neither of which Leeds have won. However the hosts have only lost one of their last 20 at home in the Championship so short to medium term form clearly favours opposing Pompey.

FT: Leeds 1, Portsmouth 0

League 1

Milton Keynes Dons v Notts County

The hosts have won all three league meetings at Stadium:MK but that doesn’t include Wimbledon’s games against Notts. The Dons are fairly priced but I think that’s a red herring – plenty of reasons to oppose that outcome and as this game came up because it’s unlikely the away team will win then lay Notts County outright instead of draw no bet as a stalemate is a real possibility if Notts are as good on the road as they appear to be this season.

FT: Milton Keynes Dons 3, Notts County 0

Scottish Premier League

Inverness Caledonian Thistle v St Mirren

5-2-3 at Inverness. ICT only have one victory at home this season but don’t let that put you off: St. Mirren have only won five of their last 20 games in the SPL. What might put you off is that since the SPL changed back to the two home/two away format, St. Mirren have won three of the first four opening games in the series at ICT: but there’s a reason why this game is in this list. Lay St. Mirren draw no bet.

FT: Inverness 2, St. Mirren 1

Rangers v Hibernian – watching brief only

Here’s a spontaneous thought. Every time Rangers, Celtic or Dinamo Zagreb come up in a post I’m going to recommend betting against them. Best price for a Hibs win this morning: 18/1. Best price for draw/Hibs in the double chance market: 7/2. Otherwise this game is only any use as a banker in an accumulator or a multiple.

FT: Rangers 1, Hibs 0 – took Rangers 78 minutes to score though.

Scottish Division 3

STRANRAER v Clyde

5-3-2 at Stair Park. Stranraer are on a three game winning streak at home and although Clyde won at Elgin City last time out (Clyde have a great record there), they’ve not won consecutive away league games for over three years. The hosts are nicely priced for the win and Clyde have lost two of their last three away games immediately after an away win.

FT: Stranraer 0, Clyde 0

European tips to follow, they should be posted before 3:00pm.

 

UK Football Tips For Saturday & Sunday

Usual strategy: at the very least, lay the away team draw no bet unless stated.

The numbers are W-D-L format over the last ten league meetings with the first named club being the hosts. Liverpool are potential bankers in England, Annan in Scotland; all kick offs are 3pm on Saturday unless stated.

I’ve included a number of games in a ‘watching brief’ section because although the numbers highlighted them as being worth a look, on further investigation the away team could cause more problems than I’d originally anticipated: I won’t be playing these but they’re the sort of games that could provide useful information later in the season. Everton and Leyton Orient could cause surprises and Torquay have a superb record at Shrewsbury.

ENGLAND

Premier League

Arsenal v Bolton Wanderers

7-3-0, Bolton haven’t managed an away win at Arsenal since January 1962.

Result: Arsenal 3, Bolton1

LIVERPOOL v Wolverhampton Wanderers

8-2-0, no draw at Anfield since November 1969.

Result: Liverpool 2, Wolves 1

SCOTLAND

Premier League

Motherwell v Aberdeen

4-3-3 in the last ten meetings at Fir Park but Aberdeen have only won one of the last six.

FT: Motherwell 1, Aberdeen 0

Division Two

Forfar Athletic v Dumbarton

5-2-3 but within that sequence the Loons have never beaten Dumbarton three times in a row; they currently have two consecutive wins.

Result: Forfar 0, Dumbarton 2

Division Three

Annan v East Stirling

5-0-1 since Annan joined the league.

FT: Annan 3, East Stirling 0

Watching Brief:

Premier League

Manchester City v Everton (Saturday, 12:45pm)

5-0-5, Everton have won four of the last six included the four consecutive. Could be less straightforward than it appears and the lack of a draw in recent meetings is relevant.

FT: 2-0

Championship

Middlesbrough v Ipswich

3-4-3

FT: 0-0

Cardiff v Leicester (Sunday, 1:15pm)

These two played each other to penalties in the Carling Cup during the week and will be sick of the sight of each other. 6-2-2 in Cardiff, last Leicester win in the regular season came in March 2008.

League 1

Colchester United v Walsall

6-1-3, which might mean a draw is inevitable, especially as Walsall have drawn ten of their last 27 away games.

FT: Colchester 1, Walsall 0

Huddersfield v Leyton Orient

5-3-2: hard to tell what (if anything) the visitors’ long term form is telling us. Should be easy to tell if the hosts win comfortably.

FT: 2-2 – rumours of Orient’s demise may be premature. Injury time equaliser.

Sheffield Wednesday v Exeter City

Only the fifth ever league meeting between these two; there’s never been a draw and Exeter have won the last two at Hillsborough.

FT: Wednesday 3, Exeter 0

League 2

Shrewsbury Town v Torquay United

Woah – stop the bus. 1-3-6? That’s amazing. Torquay might make an appearance on Monday morning…but more of that later.

FT: Shrewsbury 2, Torquay 0

Scottish Division 2

Stranraer v Elgin City

4-2-2 since Elgin joined the league but 2-2-2 in the last six. May be worth watching this one, purely because the series is usually split. Date for your diaries: the second game at Stair Park in 28th January 2012.

FT: Stranraer 1, Elgin 0 – so back Elgin at the end of January 😉

Related articles

• UK Selections For 17th/18th September (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)
• English and Scottish Tips For The Weekend (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)
• Weekend Picks For England and Scotland (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)
• Free Football Tips For Wednesday 3rd August (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)

 

Weekend Picks For England and Scotland

Unless advised, all games are 3:00pm GMT kick offs on Saturday afternoon and at the very least the away teams should be opposed in the draw no bet market. Manchester City, Cardiff and Crewe look as if they might form a promising treble: Cardiff are my home bankers this weekend.

PREMIER LEAGUE

Everton v Aston Villa

4-4-2 at Goodison but Everton have only won one of the last six games against Villa at home.

Result 2-2

Fulham v Blackburn (this is a Sunday game, 4:00pm kick off)

4-2-4 at Craven Cottage, Fulham have only lost one of the last six at home to Blackburn

Manchester City v Wigan

4-1-2 in league games at Maine Road and <Insert Sponsor’s Name Here> Stadium. Prohibitive prices may put me off this one.

Result: Man City 3, Wigan 0

CHAMPIONSHIP

Cardiff v Doncaster Rovers

6-1-3 in South Wales, Cardiff have won five of the last six.

Result: Cardiff 2, Doncaster 0

Leeds v Crystal Palace

4-2-4 at Elland Road, 3-1-2 in last six. Might be advisable to exercise some caution.

Result: Leeds 3, Crystal Palace 2

LEAGUE 1

Charlton v Exeter City

Exeter’s win last season was their first ever at Charlton in thirteen league meetings at the Valley but the question is whether they’ll repeat it or not. A clue: they’ll need to score their first goal of the season to stand a chance.

Result: Charlton 2, Exeter City 0

Colchester v Leyton Orient

No brainer with a black swan warning: Leyton Orient haven’t won at Colchester since September 1951. That’s a long time ago but will it happen again this weekend?

Result: Colchester 1, Leyton Orient 1

Huddersfield v Tranmere

Straight lay on Tranmere – Huddersfield haven’t been beaten in seven of the last ten meetings between these two in Yorkshire, but have only won two of the last six (last win in April 2008).

Result: Huddersfield 2, Tranmere 0

LEAGUE 2

Crewe v Barnet

Only four league meetings at Crewe and Barnet have yet to win there; if you fancy a goals bet, this one looks like over 2.5 goals as there have been some wacky scorelines in this one over the years.

Result: Crewe 3, Barnet 1

Shrewsbury v Hereford (1:00pm GMT kick off)

The hosts are 7-1-2 in the last ten home games against Hereford and have won five of the last six.

Result: Shrewsbury 3, Hereford 1

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Celtic v Motherwell

I’ll be amazed if there are prices worth taking in this game, so if there’s time I’ll look for an alternative angle.

Result: Celtic 4, Motherwell 0 (didn’t bother with this)

SCOTTISH DIVISION 2

Brechin v Forfar

Another game where the hosts are 4-2-4 in the last ten: however over the last 20 league games, Brechin are 3-0-0 after a home draw and Forfar are 2-0-4 after an away defeat. May be worth a small bet on the draw simply because it doesn’t seem to come up very much.

Result: Brechin 0, Forfar 1

SCOTTISH DIVISION 3

Berwick v Montrose

Another 4-2-4 game (I smell a ‘category and strategy’ opportunity here): Berwick normally win one and lose the other at Sheilfield Park and it should be their turn to win on Saturday. However there hasn’t been a draw in eight games and once again a nibble on the draw may be appropriate.

Result: Berwick 1, Montrose 2

 

English and Scottish Tips For The Weekend

OK – at the very least most of these should all be games where the away side may not win, but there are a couple where the absence of drawn games indicates that the draw should be laid or some kind of dutch/double chance may be the better option. I’ll mark those with an asterisk*.

Saturday 27th August

Premier League

12:00pm

Aston Villa v Wolves

I’ll be surprised if Wolves win this – last ten league games at Villa Park are 5-3-2 and Wolves haven’t won consecutive league games there since the late 1950s. Both teams to score could be worth a look.

Result: 0-0

5:30pm

Liverpool v Bolton

Liverpool have won nine of the last ten meetings at Anfield and Bolton haven’t beaten Liverpool in the league in an away game since January 1954. Could be a low scoring game, especially as Bolton seem to have trouble scoring at Anfield: any scoreline under 3.5 goals where the away side doesn’t score might be worth dutching.

Result: Liverpool 3, Bolton 1

The games below are all traditional 3:oopm kick offs:

Championship

Middlesbrough v Coventry

The Sky Blues have only won once at Middlesbrough in the last ten games.

Result: Middlesbrough 1, Coventry 1

Millwall v Barnsley*

Lay the draw – Millwall’s last ten league games against the Tykes in South London have finished 6-1-3

Result: 1-1. Ah well 😉

League 1

Brentford v Tranmere

5-3-2 to Brentford in the league at Griffin Park.

Result: Brentford 0, Tranmere 2. Interesting!

Colchester v Oldham

4-4-2 to Colchester, Oldham haven’t won any of the last six.

Result: Colchester 4, Oldham 1

Rochdale v Hartlepool

6-2-2 to Rochdale in the league at Spotland and similar to Oldham’s record at Colchester, the Monkey Hangers have failed to win any of the last six encounters in Lancashire. It’s also tempting to think that Dale’s 2-0 win at QPR in the Carling Cup might have raised their morale a few notches.

Result: Rochdale 1, Hartlepool 3

League 2

Accrington Stanley v Burton

4-1-1 to Stanley, going back to their game in the Unibond Premier in December 2001. Both clubs have come a long way since then.

Result: Stanley 2, Burton 1

Scottish Division 1

Dundee v Greenock Morton

Worth pointing out that Morton haven’t won at Dens Park since November 1997: last ten league games there have finished 7-2-1 in Dundee’s favour.

Result: Dundee 0, Morton 1 – oops!

Falkirk v Ross County*

Possible draw lay – only one tied game between these two in the last ten seasons when Falkirk have been at home in the league.

Result: Falkirk 1, Ross 1

Scottish Division 2

East Fife v Dumbarton*

Lay the draw, but be aware that East Fife have only won three of the last six league games at Bayview. Might be worth dutching both teams draw no bet.

East Fife 0, Dumbarton 6. I’ll be honest and say I wasn’t expecting that! Still, laying the draw was the right play…

Scottish Division 3

Alloa v Peterhead

5-3-2 record for Alloa when they’re at home to Peterhead in the league.

Result: Alloa 2, Peterhead 1

Elgin v East Stirling*

No draws in the last ten league games at Elgin, so laying East Stirling draw no bet is the call.

Elgin 2, East Stirling 0

Queens Park v Berwick*

See Elgin v East Stirling – lay the draw as the ten game league record is 5-0-5, which is pretty clear cut IMHO.

Result: and the draw magnet continues – 1-1.

Sunday 28th August

Scottish Premier League

3:00pm

Rangers v Aberdeen

Only worth laying Aberdeen draw no bet if the price falls below 9.0 on the exchanges. No point in going anywhere near it otherwise.

Result: Rangers 2, Aberdeen 0

3:45pm

Hearts v Hibernian

Premier League

4:00pm

Manchester United v Arsenal

6-2-2 to United over the last ten Premier League games at Old Trafford but the stat I like the best is that if you count Man U, Man City, Arsenal and Spurs as the top four teams from last season then the away sides in games between them should be an automatic lay. So far this season all we’ve found out is that Arsenal are better than Udinese. Additionally, under 3.5 goals could be nailed on here.

Half time: United 3, Arsenal 1. At the moment, Arsenal have been lucky to get one.

 

Free Tips For Saturday 13th August

Rough and Ready Tips For England and Scotland this weekend. At the very least, back the away team DNB (draw no bet) if available. Unfortunately I didn’t have time to run a full analysis for the European leagues this weekend but with any luck most of these should come in.

Premier League

Liverpool v Sunderland

Sunderland haven’t won at Anfield since October 1983.

Result: 1-1

Championship

Watford v Derby County

Derby have won only one of their last ten trips to Vicarage Road.

Result: Watford 0, Derby 1

The following Scottish games are worth considering, but liquidity could be a problem.

Scottish Premier League

Celtic v Dundee United

Might have to be patient, but it should be worth waiting for. United haven’t won at Celtic since January 1993.

Result: Celtic 5, Dundee United 1

Hearts v Aberdeen

Aberdeen have won two of the last ten games at Tynecastle.

Result: Hearts 3, Aberdeen 0

Scottish First Division

Falkirk v Partick Thistle

Similar story as Hearts v Aberdeen – Partick have only won two of the last ten games at Falkirk.

Result: Falkirk 2, Partick Thistle 1

Scottish Third Division

Berwick Rangers v East Stirlingshire

And again…East Stirlingshire have only won two of the last ten games at Shielfield Park.

Result: Berwick Rangers 4, East Stirlingshire 2

 

>Something For The Weekend 25/9/10

>Let’s get to it. Games in England and Scotland first plus a couple to avoid.

Barclays Premier League
Birmingham City v Wigan Athletic
There’s always the chance of a draw when Birmingham are at home, but as they’ve never lost at home to Wigan in the league and have won the last three games at St. Andrews, they look good value to me. If you’re going to look at this one on the exchanges, you know what I’m going to suggest…yes, dutch Birmingham and the draw. And if you really want to go mad, lay Wigan.

Fulham v Everton
Fulham are worth a straight bet; this will be Everton’s second trip to West London in the past week and the last one didn’t end so well – beaten by Brentford on penalties in the Carling Cup. Fulham have won ten of the last twelve and the last time there was a draw between these two at Craven Cottage was in April 1965; so a draw is overdue. Doesn’t mean there’ll be one: but as it’s not likely to be a high scoring game then it can’t be ruled out either. Dutching Fulham/draw and backing under 2.5 goals also look like they could pay out.

Additional info: 80% of games in the Premiership this season have finished as either home wins/draws.

nPower Championship
Coventry City v Preston North End
Two clubs apparently going in opposite directions. Coventry haven’t lost at home this season and Preston’s away record is dreadful so this looks as if it’s clear cut: the problem comes with the head to head stats: the last two games between these two at the Ricoh Arena have been draws. I still think it’s worth backing a Coventry win, but dutching Cov/draw might also be a profitable outcome. Preston are on my Relegation Radar but more of that in a couple of weeks.

Additional info: 72% of games in the Championship this season have finished as either home wins/draws.

nPower League 2
Morecambe v Barnet
I’ve already mentioned Barnet’s ineptitude away from Underhill this season and there’s no reason to think they’re suddenly going to turn it around at Morecambe’s new Globe Arena stadium. True, Morecambe started this season with three home draws (might be a spot of New Stadium Syndrome there) but they haven’t lost at home since the end of January. Back Morecambe but have an insurance dutch just in case Barnet pinch a point.

Additional info: 73.8% of games in the League 2 this season have finished as either home wins/draws.

Interesting, but save your money:
nPower Championship
QPR v Doncaster
You get the feeling that if Rangers melt down at any point this season it’ll be self inflicted. They won’t win every game at Loftus Road this season, but as Doncaster haven’t won there since February 1952 it’s unlikely they’ll lose this one but the problem is that a QPR win has no value. They’ve got Millwall next Tuesday though and they’re a different kettle of fish entirely.

Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 3
Albion Rovers v Elgin City
Albion have only lost once at home in their last ten games but their home record against Elgin is horrible. Three wins in the last ten indicate that perhaps you shouldn’t be fooled by the short odds for Albion.

East Stirling v Berwick Rangers
Consecutive weeks on this list indicate that East Stirling could be a team to avoid in the long – the Scottish version of Brighton perhaps. Another home game where the visiting team has a far superior head to head record; East Stirling have won two of the last three games between these two at home, but Berwick won the other seven; the visitors are top of Division 3 and haven’t lost so far. If I was in the Falkirk area I’d drop in and have a look at this one as it looks like an intriguing game.

Additional info: 64.5% of games in the Scottish 3rd Division this season have finished as either home wins/draws. Hmmm. Not surprising looking at the info above.