>Weekend Round Up

>Not a bad haul at all, I’ll be keeping an eye on Anderlecht going into the championship group play off in Belgium though – Genk are now only four points behind them with a game in hand, which they play this week and is on my provisional list for Wednesday. Anderlecht’s draw at Mechelen on Sunday night snapped a six game away winning streak in the league.

I mentioned that St. Truiden hadn’t drawn at home all season and that laying the draw in their game against Gent was trappy and it turned out to be that way.

Seven of the eight games in Greece finished under 2.5 goals, but surprisingly the only exception was Larissa‘s 2-1 win over Panserraikos, which sent the visitors to the bottom of the table. Panserraikos may have a chance to pick up some points next weekend, but that’s another game that needs some research.

It’s the end of the month, so it’s time to do the accounts – I’ve made a loss this month, but that was on the cards anyway given the losing streak I had earlier in January, but it’ll be interesting to see where the leaks were this month.

Still, at least I’d not had any cash on Real Madrid winning La Liga – I watched the end of their defeat at Osasuna and it was full of those ridiculous slow motion close ups of Cristiano Ronaldo about to go into a major strop. Still, you make your bed etc. etc.

Should be another post up either tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday morning with some Belgian tips, still slogging away at a Superbowl Preview as well.

 

>Free Tips For Games In Belgium & Greece

>There’s a chance that all games in the Greek Super League this weekend could be under 2.5 goals, but with Panathinaikos and Atromitos at home and AEK and Panserraikos away it looks unlikely. Oddly enough, the bottom two in both Belgium and Greece play each other this weekend – and both of those games are problematic.


SATURDAY
Greece
3.15pm
Iraklis v Kerkyra
Oppose Kerkyra – under 2.5 might also be worth considering and assuming an Iraklis win, that could be to nil. Iraklis have kept clean sheets in five of their nine games at the Kafantzoglio this season, which is the same number of times Kerkyra have failed to score on their travels.


Belgium
7:00pm
Club Brugge v Germinal Beerschot
Fourth placed Brugge have been a disappointment this season (fourteen points behind Anderlecht already) and they’re too short to consider backing here, so the alternative markets kick in – both clubs have defensive frailties but the both teams to score market depends on Beerschot bringing their shooting boots with them. The visitors have only scored once in their last five league visits to the Jan Breydel Stadium and are currently one of six clubs in Belgium that have scored less than one goal per game on the road. Over 2.5 goals is possible, but keep the stake realistic.

Lierse v Charleroi
Bottom two clubs, so some caution advised here – opposing Charleroi looks like the safest course to me. Worth noting that only one of the eight games between the current bottom six has produced more than 2.5 goals and both teams scored in only two of those eight games.

Standard Liege v Westerlo
Definitely worth a look, especially as Standard’s price has been drifting all week: despite Westerlo showing an improvement on the road this season, they’ve lost the last eight league games in Liege and have failed to score in seven of those.


KORTRIJK v Cercle Brugge
A nice price for a possible home win. Kortrijk’s improvement at home is based on a tough defence and they’ve beaten Cercle in the last two league meetings in West Flanders. The only caution here would be that Kortrijk have neither won nor scored in their last two home games at the Guldensporenstadion, which is named after a medieval battle.


Sunday
A couple of possible away wins in Belgium, but I’d tread very carefully with the Greek games


Greece
1:00pm
Panionios v Kavala – watching brief only.
On paper, this game is one where over 2.5 goals is totally unthinkable…until you get to the head to head record. Four of the last five meetings at Panionios have been over. If you can find any markets for over/under 3000 spectators, take under, but the tentative recommendation is for Panionios NOT to keep a clean sheet

3:15pm
Larissa v Pansseraikos
Finding a way to oppose Pansseraikos looks like the right choice here as they’ve only won once in their last five trips to central Greece, but here’s an official caveat emptor. Games between the current bottom four in the Super League have produced only one home win this season and that was the reverse fixture between these two at the beginning of October…I’m almost tempted to say wait and see what happens between Lierse and Charleroi on Saturday and then back whatever outcome that game produced.
Update: leave this one alone as well.



Belgium
5:00pm
Mechelen v Anderlecht
Hosts have only lost once at home this season (to Club Brugge, which is significant because despite having a disappointing season they’re one of the better teams in Belgium) but have only beaten Anderlecht twice in the league at home in the last nine league meetings. Anderlecht are good for at least one goal so Mechelen not to keep a clean sheet could be worth a nibble if the price isn’t too silly.

7:30pm
St Truiden v Gent
Possibly lay the draw – Gent have won six of the last ten visits to St. Truiden in the league and the hosts have yet to draw at home. It’s trappy, but the alternative – Gent draw no bet – is too short.

 

>Forest Win, Doncaster Don’t

>Well, I’ve got to say that both last night’s results in the nPower Championship are typical Bristol City. It didn’t come as too much of a shock that City lost at Nottingham Forest, but I should have guessed that our latest ‘export’ would score both of the goals as Barnsley beat Doncaster at the Keepmoat Stadium for the third time in a row. City travel to Barnsley on April 9th – I’ll take a look at Haynes’ anytime goalscorer odds at that point.

There’ll be a weekend post up on Friday afternoon featuring games from Belgium and Greece (it’s a cup weekend in Portugal) and I’m currently in the middle of writing a Superbowl preview as well as drafting some thoughts on the forthcoming MLB season, which starts on March 31st. I’ve already identified a couple of possible World Series contenders that are currently available at big prices, but more about them later.

Update: I’ve got a rare lay tip today – Marching Song in the 1:45 at Huntingdon.

 

>Tuesday’s Free Tips, nPower Championship Edition

>Three games in the nPower Championship tomorrow, two are worth a look but neither of them are as clear cut as they might appear. Home wins in bold, banker is in caps…but make sure you read the Forest preview!

NOTTINGHAM FOREST v Bristol City
Forest’s home winning streak in the league is now ridiculous (32 regular season home games without defeat stretching back to September 2009) and although City haven’t won at the City Ground since November 1955, they’ve beaten Swansea and drawn with QPR away from home this season.

I’m not going to go as far as predicting an upset, but City could nick a point and Forest’s win price is far too short. Home team not to keep a clean sheet might also be worth a nibble, but it might be profitable to start opposing Forest at home over the next few weeks – they can’t go undefeated forever.

Recommendation: oppose City, but don’t go overboard on a Forest win.

Doncaster Rovers v Barnsley
Doncaster are one of the most improved teams in the Championship this season which could be a problem for Barnsley, who are lucky that their home form is shoring them up at the moment – away from Oakwell they’re playing like a team that should be in the bottom six. Having said that…Barnsley have won their last two league visits to the Keepmoat Stadium and Donny have only won half of the last ten league games between them with home advantage. Looking at this game purely from the point of view of Yorkshire derbies in the Championship so far, home teams have won four of the six games so far – the others were drawn.

Recommendation: oppose Barnsley as they’ve only got about 20% chance of winning this. Don’t rule out a draw though.

 

>A Weekend Without Internet

>Well, that was fun…as it turns out the modem fell over on Friday evening and it’s only just been replaced, so this is the first thing I’ve done online for almost three days!

I looked back at what was I was going to recommend and as you can probably imagine I would have come out on top. Anyway, you don’t miss what you’ve never had and so I’ll be back later in the week with some more tips.

 

>NFL Divisional Playoffs (Sunday)

>Chicago Bears 11-5 v Seattle Seahawks 7-9


The Bears are 5-3 at home (3-1 against teams with records over .500), the Seahawks are 2-6 on the road (1-2 against teams with records over .500)


Guess what. The Seahawks beat the Bears in Chicago earlier this season and have a 4-2 record against hosts in Chicago. Even looking at this game from the point of view that both of these sides finished third in their respective divisions in 2009 and went on to win them this season doesn’t help as there’s no clear advantage.


Unless you go back to the Seahawks win in Chicago this season. However, the general records in the playoffs are a little more illuminating. The Bears are 10 of 16 in home playoff games but have only won four of the last ten…Seattle has the last seven of their eight road games in the playoffs. Advantage – though not conclusively – Bears.


Looking at the current prices, the Bears are far too short to back but there is support for Seattle, presumably because of the win earlier this season, the superiority of the Seahawks head to head record in the Windy City and the upset win over the Saints last week. However, none of these disguise Seattle’s poor away record over the last few seasons – just four regular season wins in sixteen games. The Bears’ home record is hardly exceptional but their defence will be the difference here.


Prediction: Bears win, but should be a lot closer game than the prices seem to suggest.


New England Patriots 14-2 v New York Jets 11-5


Before I go any further, I’m not a Patriots fan by any means. That doesn’t mean that I shouldn’t admire them, but only from the perspective of wishing the teams I support across various sports were as consistently good as them.


The Patriots are the only team who won their division last season that are left in the playoffs. I can’t emphasise enough how important this stat is: half of the Superbowl winners since the 1990 season won their division the season before, 11 of the 20 teams that lost also achieved that. There’ll be more of those numbers when the championship games are decided, but let’s put it this way: a Jets win would be a major shock.


New England finished unbeaten at home and were 4-0 against teams with better than .500 records, the Jets finished 6-2 on the road and were 1-2 against teams with better than .500 records. The regular season games were split according to home advantage: the Patriots have won 12 of the last 20 games between these two in New England, a trend which includes seven of the last ten.


So is there any way the Jets can win? I was going to write ‘short of knocking Tom Brady out of the game’, but that might be exactly what the Jets may have to do. Defensively the team from the Big Apple may be better, but they’ll have to be at their absolute best to stop the Patriots.


Prediction: New England win, but it may not be a 42 point blow out this time. If the opportunity arises to run the score up, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots take it. If you think that sounds ridiculous, since the 2005 season New England have won four of the last ten games in the NFL that have been decided by a points differential of 42 points or more.

 

>Saturday Round Up

>Well, not bad for a single day considering the less than spectacular January I’m having – this is where good record keeping comes in as there are a number of holes in my game that I’ve identified and I’m going to spend the rest of the month plugging them.

For example, I definitely need to change my approach to goals markets. Half of my losses for this month have been in this area: in fact, only I’ve won only four of seventeen bets on goal markets this month, which is pretty dreadful. I need to stick to over/under 2.5 and not get involved with any of the more ‘exotic’ markets – ‘both teams to score’ markets are a good example of a quick route to the poor house.

In a low scoring league such as the Greek Super League this season – and not counting today’s games – the ‘both teams to score’ numbers look like this:

139 total games, both teams scored in 55 of them – 39.56%. About half of those 55 games ended in draws. It’s therefore reasonable to assume that in about 60% of games in Greece, both teams will not score. Furthermore, only 43 of those 139 games featured over 2.5 goals: that’s 30%. So a ‘typical’ Greek game is likely to be under 2.5 goals with either one or neither side scoring.

In comparison, the numbers for Portugal – where there are slightly more goals per game but the majority of games are still under 2.5 – are as follows: in 123 total games, both teams scored in 58 of them (47%) and only 20 of those games were draws (34%). So once again, it’s reasonable to assume that in a majority of games in Portugal, both teams won’t score although it’s less clear cut than the Greek example.

Armed with that information – even though it’s not comprehensive and comes from two relatively goal shy competitions – it should help my decision making in goals markets.

NFL games previews will be up later.

 

>NFL Play Offs

>There’s an old NFL quote that goes something along the lines of ‘offense wins games but defense wins championships’ – and I think we’re going to see if that stands up tonight as we’ve got two of the best in action this evening.

Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 v Baltimore Ravens 12-4


Regular season:
Pittsburgh 5-3 at home 1-3 against teams with records better than .500
Baltimore 5-3 on the road, 2-2 against teams with .500 records
Ravens won at Pittsburgh in Week 4


Pittsburgh start as favourites, although this probably has more to do with their recent record at Heinz Field against the Ravens – seven wins in the last ten meetings, plus two wins in both the playoff games between these two (2001 and 2008). Normally it would be tempting to use the Ravens win in Pittsburgh as some kind of upset indicator, but as various sources are pointing out today, Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger was suspended for that game.


What does appear to be significant is the head to head record between ‘C’ grade teams (those that finished third in their division the season before) and ‘B’ grade teams (those that finished second in their division before) – in 2009 there was a clear advantage for the C teams, but that’s shifted the other way this season and Baltimore could benefit from it as Pittsburgh is 1-2 this season against B sides. The Ravens were 2-0 on the road against C sides.

However…this is going to be a defensive battle. The cutoff in the total points market is 37, which is really low – ten of the last fifteen games between these two in Pittsburgh have been over – and if it comes down to the better defense, then the Steelers will advance to the AFC Championship Game.


Prediction: I’m going to watch this game with a couple of cans. I can’t see either side winning by more than a touchdown, so a small punt on Pittsburgh winning by 1 to 6 points looks solid. That being said, that kind of margin of victory is potential overtime territory and that option is available at a big price so it may be worth a nibble.


Atlanta Falcons 13-3 v Green Bay Packers 10-6


OK, I admit I got last weekend’s Wild Card game wrong and I’ve layed the Pack for Superbowl XLV as I recommended so I’ve already got reasons to want the Falcons to win. So I’m going to be as objective as possible in this preview!


Regular Season:
Falcons 8-1 at home, 3-1 against teams over .500
Packers 3-5 on the road, 2-3 against teams over .500
Falcons beat Packers 20-17 in Week 11


Atlanta has won eight of the 12 regular season meetings between these two (four of the last five), although they’ve faced each other twice in the playoffs both of those games were in Wisconsin and the series is split.


This is a B/B game (ie between divisional runners up in 2009) and unlike the situation I outlined in the Pittsburgh/Baltimore preview, this is a far clearer outcome. Over the last two regular seasons the home teams are 22-10 (about 1.47), which seems to support an Atlanta win: the Falcons were 3-0 against other B teams at home this season. Green Bay was 2-1 on the road against other B teams but crucially the loss was to the Falcons.

Prediction: I’d probably pick the Falcons, but their price has been drifting badly today and the reason has got to be because the Packers defence should be able to cope with them. The points line is higher in this game but if you’re thinking over taking over 44 you’re basically taking a Packers win. I still don’t think the Packers will win it all, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they cause another upset.

 

>Weekend Football Betting Tips

>Seems a bit odd that I’ve not posted for almost a week, but unfortunately I had to attend a funeral on Tuesday and I’ve been catching up since I got back.

From next week onwards, I’ll only be concentrating on Belgium, Croatia, Greece, Hungary and Portugal, adding in the Scandinavian leagues when they kick off. The Eliteserien in Norway starts on 19th March and then takes a two week break for some reason; the Allsvenskan starts on 2nd April but the Veikkausliiga fixtures haven’t been released yet.

There are a couple of reasons for this:

1. Lots of information for the major leagues is available elsewhere. I highly recommend Racing & Football Outlook, which doesn’t have an online presence per se but Alexander Deacon’s website should give you a flavour of what to expect.

2. I’m involved in a new project that could have a substantial workload in the future, so cutting down on the amount of coverage makes sense – especially as it might include more analysis of Major League Soccer.

Here are the football tips for Saturday and Sunday, I should have a post ready for the NFL games before those games kick off. Home wins in bold, home banker in capitals.

Saturday
Championship
12:45pm
SWANSEA v Crystal Palace
Current top four are 5-3-1 against current bottom four when the top four are at home, probably a low scoring game as Swansea have shut out Scunthorpe and Preston at the Liberty Stadium this season and Swans home games are averaging 1.62 goals per game.


3:00pm
Watford v Derby
Both teams to score, which has happened in six of the last ten games between these two at Vicarage Road. Seven of the home nine games Watford have played against teams below them this season have featured goals from both sides.


Nottingham Forest v Portsmouth
Pompey have won the last two league games at the City Ground and Forest’s 31 game undefeated regular season home streak will be snapped at some point…just probably not this weekend. Watford and Cardiff visit next month.


Premiership
3:00pm
Chelsea v Blackburn
Chelsea are already to short to risk backing if they don’t win, so there’s something to be said about keeping an eye on the both teams to score price – although Blackburn have scored precisely two goals in the last six league games at Stamford Bridge, Rovers have scored in nine of their 11 games in the Premiership this season and that includes games at both Manchester clubs. Chelsea have kept one clean sheet in their last four home league games (against Bolton): their run of nine consecutive shut outs at the end of last season and the beginning of this one is fading quickly in the rear view mirror.


Manchester City v Wolves
Avoid the win market as Wolves’ record at City isn’t that bad at all over the years. Far more interesting is the over/under 2.5 goals price – there have only been four games with over 2.5 goals in the 11 games at Eastlands in the Premiership this season. 50% of Wolves’ away games have been under 2.5 goals, including low scoring games at Chelsea and Liverpool.  Having said that, I’m not completely convinced that the goal line is as clear cut as it could be: City to keep a clean sheet and/or both teams not to score look like decent alternatives.

Spain
5:00pm
Villareal  v Osasuna

Just about value, although there are some obvious trap elements – Villareal haven’t lost at home, Osasuna haven’t won away and the hosts haven’t actually beaten Osasuna at home in a league game since January 2006 (two draws and a defeat since then)


Spain
7:00pm
Athletic Bilbao v Racing Santander

Oppose Racing – there are some slight trap elements here as Athletic haven’t drawn at home this season in the league and three of the last five meetings in the league in Bilbao have been tied. Racing are on a mini unbeaten streak (two games) after snapping a five game losing run at the start of December.

France

8:00pm
Auxerre v Monaco
Oppose Monaco. Although Auxerre’s price is tempting, they are the draw specialists in Ligue 1 (11 overall, five at home) and with Monaco having drawn five of their nine away league games this season then a draw cannot be ruled out at all.


PSG v Sochaux
If you can find PSG over 1.50 on Saturday morning take them.

Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Pacos de Ferreira
Under 2.5 goals – Sporting haven’t scored more than two goals at home all season and Pacos have only been involved in two away games where there have been more than two goals – Benfica beat the visitors 2-0 at the Stade de Luz earlier in the season and that’s the kind of scoreline you can expect from Sporting.


SUNDAY
Premiership
12:00pm
Watching Brief
Sunderland v Newcastle

I wasn’t expecting this at all when I started research this game – Sunderland’s home league record against Newcastle is appalling. Four wins in 20 games going back to January 1966, five Newcastle wins in the last ten league meetings and eight draws in the last fifteen games. If the form book is supposed to go out of the window in local derbies, then Sunderland should win back to back home league games against Newcastle for the first time since the Beatles broke up. Oppose Newcastle, but I’m really tempted to say do it at your own risk – although being dumped out of the FA Cup by Notts County and the 5-1 defeat at Newcastle at the end of October should mean Steve Bruce doesn’t have to motivate his side, Newcastle’s record at Sunderland speaks for itself.

Greece
3:15pm
ARIS v Panionios
Apart from a defeat at home to Xanthi before Christmas, Aris had won four of their last six home games. Panionios haven’t been doing that badly on their travels recently but have not won any of their last ten trips to Thessaloniki. A small side bet on the draw might also be worth it.

Portugal

4:00pm
Uniao de Leiria v Beira Mar
The continuing adventures of Uniao de Leiria aka the second most improved home team in Portugal this season (Olhanense are currently top of that table). This week they’re up against away draw specialists Beira Mar but what the tables won’t tell you is that the visitors are nicking points from teams that aren’t as good as Leiria. Not only that, Beira Mar have had a couple of three game drawing streaks away from home in the league in the past and they usually lose the fourth game.


France
8:00pm
Marseille v Bordeaux

Oppose Bordeaux. They’ve won three of the last ten league meetings at the Velodrome, but Marseille have only won four of the other seven meetings and have won just four of their nine home games in 2010/2011. Bordeaux have only beaten Arles and Auxerre on the road this season, but that’s not saying much.

Portugal
9:15pm
Academica v Benfica

A rare away win recommendation, but there’s something of a revenge element in this game – Academica won at Benfica in the first game of the season but are struggling at home right now (one win in the last five league matches) and have lost at home to Porto and Sporting Lisbon so far. Benfica won at a canter at Leiria last weekend and should do so in Coimbra.

 

>Sunday’s NFL Wildcard Games

>Kansas City Chiefs 10-6 v Baltimore Ravens 12-4


Baltimore look underpriced to me, although this may be because Kansas have only won six of their last 20 home games in regulation time (2-1 in overtime). It’s also difficult to assess this game in head to head terms as they’ve only met once in the regular season in Kansas since the Ravens were established in 1996: Baltimore won 20-10 in December 2006.


Although the Chiefs are 7-1 at home, they’re only 1-0 against teams that finished with a winning record in 2010 and the Week 1 win over the Chargers was arguably their toughest home game of the season. Baltimore are 5-3 on the road but were 2-2 on the road against teams with winning records and had a brutal schedule that featured four teams that have reached the playoffs. If Baltimore can beat the Jets and the Steelers and lose to the Patriots and the Falcons by less than seven points on the road they should be able to handle the Chiefs.


Recommendation: enjoy the game – but if Baltimore win, it’s worth remembering that eight of the last 20 Superbowl winners finished the regular season 12-4. 17 of the last 20 winners had 12-4 records or better. For what it’s worth, I think the Ravens will dominate in a low scoring game.


Philadelphia Eagles v Green Bay Packers (both 10-6)

An intriguing contest to finish Wild Card Weekend. The Eagles are favourites, which isn’t much of a surprise considering the Packers have lost their last three road games – to be fair to Green Bay those losses were by an average of just over three points so at least the games were close.


The head to head stats in games between these two in Pennslyvania also favours the hosts – although Green Bay won 27-20 in Week 1, the Eagles had won eight of the previous ten regular season meetings by an average of 15 points. They’ve also won both of the post season meetings in Philadelphia, including the 1960 NFL Championship Game – the only playoff game that legendary Packers coach Vince Lombardi ever lost.


In 2010 the Eagles were 4-4 at home this season but were 3-1 against teams that finished with winning records: two of those games were against other playoff teams. They lost three of the four home games with sub .500 records, closing the season with two defeats. So it looks as if the Eagles are the type of team that can raise their game against good sides but may fall down against poor ones.


On the other hand, it’s not hard to see why the Packers are in the Wild Card round – 3-5 on the road and 2-3 against teams with winning records. They lost to three divisional winners (Bears, Falcons and Patriots) which is hardly the sort of form to take into a road game against the Eagles, who won the NFC West.

Recommendation: although the Eagles should win, neither of these clubs will probably reach Superbowl XLV – only one team with a 10-6 record has in the last 20 seasons (the 2008 Giants) – but with the Saints having been sensationally dispatched by the Seahawks last night, whoever wins this game will have a great chance of reaching the NFC Championship. Like the Seahawks/Saints game last night, lay whoever wins the game for Superbowl XLV.

Overall, I’m not really wavering from my prediction that the Patriots are the AFC team to beat in the playoffs but Pittsburgh and Baltimore are definitely worth considering if New England lose to the Jets next weekend. Both have 12-4 records, which has been good enough for eight wins in the last 20 Superbowls. In the NFC, only Atlanta and Chicago look as if they’re good enough to reach North Texas next month, with the Falcons being the better team. Curiously, 13-3 teams – like the Falcons – have lost seven of their 13 appearances in the Superbowl. Although the picture is still unclear, I have a tentative recommendation: back the AFC to be the winning conference in Superbowl XLV – although not many bookies have prices available yet.