>NFL Divisional Playoffs (Sunday)

>Chicago Bears 11-5 v Seattle Seahawks 7-9


The Bears are 5-3 at home (3-1 against teams with records over .500), the Seahawks are 2-6 on the road (1-2 against teams with records over .500)


Guess what. The Seahawks beat the Bears in Chicago earlier this season and have a 4-2 record against hosts in Chicago. Even looking at this game from the point of view that both of these sides finished third in their respective divisions in 2009 and went on to win them this season doesn’t help as there’s no clear advantage.


Unless you go back to the Seahawks win in Chicago this season. However, the general records in the playoffs are a little more illuminating. The Bears are 10 of 16 in home playoff games but have only won four of the last ten…Seattle has the last seven of their eight road games in the playoffs. Advantage – though not conclusively – Bears.


Looking at the current prices, the Bears are far too short to back but there is support for Seattle, presumably because of the win earlier this season, the superiority of the Seahawks head to head record in the Windy City and the upset win over the Saints last week. However, none of these disguise Seattle’s poor away record over the last few seasons – just four regular season wins in sixteen games. The Bears’ home record is hardly exceptional but their defence will be the difference here.


Prediction: Bears win, but should be a lot closer game than the prices seem to suggest.


New England Patriots 14-2 v New York Jets 11-5


Before I go any further, I’m not a Patriots fan by any means. That doesn’t mean that I shouldn’t admire them, but only from the perspective of wishing the teams I support across various sports were as consistently good as them.


The Patriots are the only team who won their division last season that are left in the playoffs. I can’t emphasise enough how important this stat is: half of the Superbowl winners since the 1990 season won their division the season before, 11 of the 20 teams that lost also achieved that. There’ll be more of those numbers when the championship games are decided, but let’s put it this way: a Jets win would be a major shock.


New England finished unbeaten at home and were 4-0 against teams with better than .500 records, the Jets finished 6-2 on the road and were 1-2 against teams with better than .500 records. The regular season games were split according to home advantage: the Patriots have won 12 of the last 20 games between these two in New England, a trend which includes seven of the last ten.


So is there any way the Jets can win? I was going to write ‘short of knocking Tom Brady out of the game’, but that might be exactly what the Jets may have to do. Defensively the team from the Big Apple may be better, but they’ll have to be at their absolute best to stop the Patriots.


Prediction: New England win, but it may not be a 42 point blow out this time. If the opportunity arises to run the score up, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots take it. If you think that sounds ridiculous, since the 2005 season New England have won four of the last ten games in the NFL that have been decided by a points differential of 42 points or more.