>Warning: Losing Streak Ahead!

>It’s official: January is off to a real stinker. Villa lost and Bolton didn’t win, so today’s been a total washout. Fortunately I’m not going to get involved with individual games in the FA Cup this weekend, which is probably a good thing under the circumstances. I’ll have some tips for Greece, Portugal and Spain posted at the end of the week plus some thoughts about the NFL playoffs, but it might be worth doing the exact opposite of what I recommend!

 

>Wednesday Tips Part 2

>Sometimes you’ve got to laugh at this game. I managed to pick the Greek match that featured three goals in as an almost guaranteed under, with two others ending in scoreless draws. Bolton are tonight’s home banker.

Premiership
7:45pm
Aston Villa v Sunderland
Villa are only in a mess due to their appalling away record this season, so it’s a good job that their home form is holding up – they’ve only lost to Arsenal and Spurs this season. Despite winning at Chelsea, Sunderland’s record on the road is almost as bad as Villa’s and they’ve only won once in their last ten league games at Villa Park so opposing the Black Cats in some way is appealling.

8:00pm
BOLTON v Wigan
According to my numbers, the most improved home side against the most improved away side in the Premiership. Wigan have won two of the last five league meetings at the Reebok, but haven’t won back to back away games in the Prem since the end of 2006. The Latics have also lost seven of the ten games immediately after they’ve won an away game. Both teams to score could be worth a look: Bolton have only kept two clean sheets at home this season, Wigan have scored in five of their nine aways this season and have only failed to score twice in fifteen all time league games at Bolton.

Watching Brief
8:00pm
Blackburn v Liverpool
Lots of contradictions here – getting rid of Sam Allardyce looks like a massive mistake and the Ronaldinho transfer rumours are quickly turning Rovers into a laughing stock. Having said that, their home record is still much better than Liverpool’s away form and although a draw might not be out of the question, opposing Blackburn could be the right play – if Liverpool lose, it could be the end of the Roy Hodgson era.

 

>Wednesday Tips Part 1

>Due to a prior appointment, I’m going to be posting twice today – there are early games in Greece, so I’ll deal with the first two now.

1:00pm GMT
Asteras Tripolis v Ergotelis
Under 2.5 goals – Asteras haven’t won at home this season and three of their seven games in Tripoli have been goalless draws. On the other hand, Ergotelis have scored in six of their seven away games…they’ve just failed to score more than once in any of them. There’s a bit of a buyer beware with this one as previous encounters have seen well over 2.5 goals but I’m confident this will be under. As with yesterday’s Greek games, watch the price.

3:15pm
AEK v Kerkyra
AEK’s win price is too short to be worth bothering with. The goal line is interesting though: under 2.5 looks promising, but AEK are one of the Greek sides that are capable of scoring more than once: Kerkyra lost 3-0 at Ergotelis earlier this season so their defence might be tested in this game.