UEFA Champions League Semi Finals: Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid

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Borussia Dortmund

This is Dortmund’s first semi final in the competition since 1998, when – as defending champions – they were knocked out by Real Madrid, who went on to win the tournament. When they reached this stage in 96/97, they beat Manchester United 1-0 in both legs (first leg at Dortmund) and although Dortmund drew 0-0 at home with Real Madrid in the second leg in 97/98, the damage had been done in the Spanish capital where they’d lost 2-0.

However…it doesn’t alter the fact that in their two previous semi final appearances in the Champions League, Borussia Dortmund have never lost a home leg. It also looks like goals may be at a premium.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid have reached eight semi finals in the last 20 seasons and this is their third consecutive SF, which is their best record for about a decade.

Let’s not get carried away though. Real Madrid have lost more of those ties than they’ve won, having been defeated at this stage in 2001, 2003, 2011 and last season. Two of those semi final defeats were by Bayern Munich, which indicates that Real Madrid may not have it their own way in Germany this evening – but two of those defeats were by teams that went on to win the Champions League.

Another aspect worth noting is that Real Madrid’s form in away semi final legs is actually worse than Barcelona’s. They’ve won once – a 2-0 win at Barcelona in April 2002 – and have lost the away leg four times. Of Real Madrid’s seven previous Champions League semi finals, they were drawn at home in the first leg on five occasions and only twice managed to qualify for the final.

Overall

It sounds obvious, but if either of these teams qualify, they both stand a good chance of winning the Champions League, but as I mentioned yesterday, German teams have never won either a European Cup or a Champions League final that has been held in England…but that’s because no German team has ever reached one. If you alter the parameters a little and include the UK generally, you’re left with a classic: the 1960 European Cup final when Real Madrid destroyed Eintracht Frankfurt 7-3 in a game that’s widely acknowledged as a classic RM performance.

On the other hand, Spanish teams – if you count Barcelona as Spanish rather than Catalan – have a much better record at Wembley: Barcelona won the last European Cup in 1992 and beat Manchester United in the Champions League final in 2011. If you also consider that only three of the 20 Champions League finals have been between teams from the same country and Bayern Munich should qualify for the final, there’s only one conclusion: back Real Madrid to qualify for the final.

The official line: no bet. I think this game will be a lot tighter than last night and although I don’t think Real Madrid will win it, I’d be surprised if they didn’t qualify for the final. They’ll have to win at the Bernabeu to do so.

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UEFA Champions League Semi Finals: Bayern Munich v Barcelona

I’ve got all four teams covered already, but it should be a fantastic semi final round.

Bayern Munich v Barcelona

Considering that both teams have reached the semi finals on three previous occasions since the turn of the century, it’s surprising that they’ve never met at this stage of the competition before. It may or may not be significant, but whenever both teams have reached the semi finals in previous seasons, Barcelona have never qualified for the final.

This is the seventh time Bayern Munich have reached the UCL semi finals in the last 20 seasons and they’ve progressed to the final in four of those ties, having beaten Real Madrid twice. Since 1994/95, Bayern Munich have never lost the home leg of any of the Champions League semi finals they’ve played in regardless of whether they’ve reached the final or not. When they’ve been hosts in the first leg (as they are tonight), they’ve won twice and drawn the other game. One of those victories was against Real Madrid last season.

Barcelona have reached this stage of the competition on nine previous occasions (and for the last six consecutive tournaments) but have lost more semi finals than they’ve won. Significantly, they’ve never faced a German team at this stage. Since 1999/2000, Barcelona’s record in the away leg of Champions League semi finals has been poor – two wins in eight games, the last coming in a 2-0 victory at Real Madrid in 2011. Significantly both of those wins were in tournaments where Barcelona went on to win the Champions League.

Overall:

If I find anything interesting before kick off I’ll update this post, but with fitness concerns surrounding Lionel Messi and Barcelona’s previous record in away legs of Champions League semi finals, I’d be tempted to lay Barcelona tonight. If they can keep possession for a ridiculous amount of time and force a draw, then I’d expect Barcelona to reach the final.

However, Bayern Munich are on a mission – last year’s defeat in the final in front of their own fans has galvanised them and I’ll be very surprised if they don’t go after Barcelona from the start of the game. This morning’s announcement that Bayern Munich have signed Mario Gotze from Dortmund is also a clear indication of intent.

Arguably the most interesting angle in this tie is that over the last couple of seasons, Barcelona have won the Champions League in alternate years and although that’s an oversimplification, they’re on course to do that again. On the other hand, AC Milan lost the final in 1993 and won the tournament in the following season, so although that feat is rare, it’s not unprecedented. However, a word of warning for Bayern Munich backers: it’s possible that Bayern Munich could lose two consecutive finals (Juventus managed that in 1997 and 1998) and a German team has never won a Champions League final in England.

Result: Bayern Munich 4, Barcelona 0.

 

UEFA Champions League: Pre-Knockout Stage Draw Strategy Part 1

Occasionally you make a connection between things that are so obviously staring you in the face that you end up feeling a little bit silly for not noticing them earlier.

On Monday, I woke up with an idea that combined concepts from both the Champions League and the NFL. As part of my Superbowl analysis, I look at the finishing positions of teams in their divisions in both the current season as well as the previous one. So I can tell you that nine of the last 20 winners of the Superbowl won their divisions the season before they won the Vince Lombardi trophy and that 16 of the last 20 winners won their division in the same season as they won the title.

My ‘Eureka’ Moment

Substitute ‘group’ for ‘division’ and you can do the same thing with the Champions League. There’s a minor difference though: there were four seasons around the turn of the century when there were two group stages, but the numbers are just as striking:

Since 1992/1993, 15 of the 20 winners of the Champions League have won at least one of the groups they were involved in. Since the second group stage was abolished, six of the last nine winners have won their group: the last team that won the whole thing but finished runners up in their group were Internazionale in 2010. More about Inter in a bit.

So now we know the identity of the group winners, it’s possible to take a look at the chances of those clubs. First of all, I think it’s fairly safe to rule out Manchester United, because the ‘host’ country has never won a Champions League final. Additionally, no country has won consecutive Champions Leagues: I’d also say the United’s defence is nowhere near as good as it needs to be to contain any of the elite strike forces they may be facing from now on.

The Spanish group winning duo have to be respected – Spanish clubs have won four of the nine finals played in England in both the European Cup and the Champions League – but I think it’s safe to say that Malaga can be written off as they’d be first time winners and that’s not happened since 2004.

That leaves three German clubs, Juventus and Paris St. Germain. PSG and Schalke 04 may be discounted due to the ‘first time winner’ rule, which means that we’re left with a trio of clubs (Bayern, Borussia Dortmund and Juventus) that have made nine appearances in the last 20 finals between them and have won the competition on three occasions.

So although a lot of things can happen between now and the end of May, I think it’s realistic to say that at this stage of the competition, an EW dutch on Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Juventus to win the Champions League isn’t the worst idea.

The advantages of this approach are obvious:

* 13 of the last 20 winners of the competition have come from Germany, Italy and Spain (and dutching those countries in the ‘winning nation’ market is a no-brainer – the group winners aren’t the only clubs in the last 16 from those countries)

* Italian & Spanish clubs have won both of the previous Champions League finals played in England and two of the five finals of the European Cup held in England.

* Silly one: seven of the last ten winners play in striped shirts but only two of the last ten runners up.

* A Spanish team has won the Champions League in every single season following an English triumph. Real Madrid in 2000, Barcelona in 2006 and 2009. That never happened in the European Cup.

The disadvantages:

* A surprise team could easily emerge – although it’s unlikely to be Galatasaray.

* German clubs are more likely to lose the final that win it – Bayern Munich have reached the final four times since they lost to Manchester United in Barcelona in 1999 and they’ve only won it once. With no German wins for over a decade, the dutching strategy mentioned above could be altered to simply backing Barcelona and Juventus.

* No German club has reached the final of either the Champions League or the European Cup when the game has been played in England.

* Juventus’ record in Champions League finals is almost as bad as Bayern Munich’s – they’ve lost their last three games, including their only appearance in England in a Champions League final (which was at Old Trafford rather than Wembley)

* When Internazionale won in 2010 without winning their group, their manager was Jose Mourinho. Real Madrid finished runners up in Group D this season: for the benefit of any readers from the future, Jose Mourinho is currently Real Madrid’s manager.

Overall:

We’re looking for a Spanish side that plays in stripes. Luckily we have one: at this stage in the competition it’s worth backing Barcelona for the Champions League but I wouldn’t go mad – this is a back to lay bet with the emphasis on the trade.

Part 2 will follow tomorrow and will elaborate on an idea from Ally McCalmont (@drawingthetrade) about the group/division concept and how it might be applied to an expanded Champions League.

 

Champions League Semi Finals (Part 1)

Just a quick update really – I’ve not really seen or heard anything that’s altered my thoughts on the tournament, but in case anyone is wondering what my strategy is, I backed Spain to be the winning nation, Real Madrid to win the Champions League after the Quarter Final draw was made and I’ve already layed Barcelona for the competition. A couple of other facts and opinions are worth adding though:

• Winning nation: Spain. No brainer really. With half of the semi finalists and the two favourites coming from La Liga then it’s entirely likely this could be a stress free bet – especially if Barcelona win the competition. It’s always worth repeating that 12 of the 19 winners of the Champions League have come from Spain, Germany and England.
• First time winner: no, which automatically rules out Chelsea.
  
• Host winner: no. The semi finals are Bayern Munich’s natural point of elimination this season. The only German team to win a German final are Borussia Dortmund, who won in Munich in 1997. However, since the turn of the century, Bayern have reached the semi finals twice and reached the finals on both occasions: in 2001, they eliminated Real Madrid.
  
• Despite what appeared in the Racing & Football Outlook this morning, the first UCL final where the finalists came from the same country was in 2000, when Real Madrid beat Valencia.
  

However, I’ll be taking a much closer look at Chelsea v Barcelona tomorrow as I’m not going to be able to watch Bayern Munich v Real Madrid tonight as I’ll be attending an important match at the bottom of the nPower Championship. I’ll be surprised if Real Madrid lose though.

Update: I’m surprised!

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Champions League Quarter Finals (Before The Draw)

First of all, congratulations to APOEL Nicosia for reaching the quarter final stage. I genuinely hope this is the start of a trend where supposed ‘minnows’ can make a breakthrough in this competition although I’ve got a feeling that over the next decade we might see the emergence of some of the more exotic millionaire’s playthings from the old Soviet Union.

I’ve already been through the ‘Barcelona’ scenario this season, it’s here if you want to take a look – scroll down to ‘What do Barcelona and England have in common?’ – but whilst researching this post I’ve found another piece of evidence that supports my argument that Barcelona won’t win the Champions League this season. I’m not going to unleash that upon the world until the draw has been made though.

Winning Nation

This hasn’t changed at all. Spain, Italy & England have produced 15 of the last 20 winners of the Champions League and with half of the teams left in the competition coming from those three countries I’d be surprised if that trend doesn’t continue, although Chelsea would have to be a ‘first time winner’ in that case.

Although I correctly wrote Napoli off in December, I’m not sure if the elimination of Inter Milan should be treated as a spanner in the works or not. Milan have a far better record than their city rivals in the competition and so it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Rossoneri are the only Italian club left in the competition. It seems obvious, but how far Milan progress from this point depends who they’re drawn against.

The only other point worth making in this category is that although a Cypriot team has never won the competition, the other seven clubs represent nations that have won 19 of the last 20 competitions. The only country ‘missing’ is the Netherlands.

Recommendation: I still think the winner will come from Italy or Spain. This also means the ‘Origin Of Winner’ remains unchanged with Groups H & D covering Barcelona, Real Madrid & Milan.

First Time Winner

Very unlikely although obviously not impossible. Six of the eight teams left in the Champions League have already won it, which leaves Chelsea and APOEL. As I’ve already pointed out, the last ‘first time’ winner was Porto in 2004 and there are other reasons to oppose Chelsea: league form, managerial instability, losing in Napoli and then needing extra time to qualify for the quarter finals are amongst them. It’s also worth mentioning the names of the other semi finalists from the season that Porto won the tournament: Chelsea, Deportivo La Coruna and Monaco. Two of those clubs are now playing in the second tier of their respective domestic competitions.

The Hosts Have No Chance

Scoring seven goals in consecutive games shows that Bayern Munich are a fantastic team against inferior opposition, but we’re in the business end of the Champions League and there aren’t any poor teams left. I can’t see any reason why the Curse Of The Hosts shouldn’t continue, especially as Bayern Munich have only reached the semi finals once in the last ten seasons and went on to lose the final.

Overall

It’s not meant to sound jingoistic, but the comparative absence of English clubs in the latter stages of the competition means that the climax of this season’s Champions League is going to be unusual. Barcelona are the favourites, but as I never get tired of repeating no club has ever won back to back Champions Leagues: even if Barcelona reach the semi finals there’s no guarantee that they’ll win the whole thing. It’s entirely likely that the only team that can beat them will be themselves.

Friday’s draw will be crucial: if Barcelona have to play either Chelsea, Milan or Real Madrid in the quarter finals or the semi finals there’s a good chance they won’t become the first team to win consecutive Champions Leagues. I’ll be back tomorrow lunchtime with some thoughts on the draw: oh, and I haven’t forgotten Benfica…even if everyone else has.

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