Games from nPower Championship and Belgium this weekend, I’ve also included some games from Scotland at the end of the post that came up via the ‘rough and ready’ method I occasionally use – the figures are H/D/A for the ten most recent games. In some cases that might be less than ten, but it’s always more than five.
nPower Championship
3:00pm
Leeds United v Doncaster
Leeds are potentially home banker material, but with five defeats and only three wins in the last ten games at Elland Road I’m afraid I can’t trust them. Doncaster’s position is easier to assess: eight defeats in their last ten games away from home.
Although I think Doncaster are certainties for relegation, I hadn’t realised how poor Leeds’ home record was until I was researching this game and although they took action when Simon Grayson was dismissed, if their long term form isn’t turned around they could struggle in 2012/13.
Recommendation: lay Doncaster. This is the tenth league game between these two at Leeds and Doncaster have only won there on one occasion.
Result: Leeds 3, Doncaster 2. The visitors actually took the lead but Leeds scored the winner nine minutes into injury time.
Crystal Palace v Watford
Goals bet – under 3.5 goals. 15 of the last 20 league games between these clubs at Selhurst Park have finished under 3.5 goals and the most common scorelines within those games reflect this. Looking back at Palace’s last 20 home league games, only two of them finished with more than 3.5 goals and you have to go back to last March to find the most recent one. Watford’s away record over the past year is similar.
Result: Palace 4. Watford 0. Fail 😦
Scottish Football League (all 3:00pm)
Division 1
Ross County v Ayr United
Last 10: 6-3-1
Result: 1-1
Division 2
Airdrie United v Stenhousemuir
Last 7: 6-1-0 (so watch out for the unexpected Stenny win, even though they’ve only won three of their last ten aways and have lost four of their last six on the road.)
Result: Airdrie 0, Stenhousemuir 3!
Dumbarton v Albion Rovers
Last 10: 7-2-1
Result: Dumbarton 1, Albion Rovers 0
Belgian Jupiler League
7:00pm
Mechelen v Beerschot
In some respects I’d actually be happier to recommend Mechelen as home bankers – they’ve not lost any of their last seven home games, while Beerschot have lost four straight away matches and have only won one of their least five trips to Achter de Kazerne.
The second part of the bet is over 1.5 goals. Eight of the last nine games between these two at Mechelen have been over (and occasionally comfortably over – the average for those nine games is exactly 3.0) and a long term look at Mechelen’s home form and Beerschot’s away form indicates a goal expectancy of around 2.7 goals.
Recommendation: lay Beerschot, back over 1.5 goals and both teams to score.
Result: Mechelen 2, Beerschot 1. So all three landed.
Mons v Genk
Over 1.5 goals. All of Mons’ home games have featured more than 1.5 goals – they’ve not kept a home clean sheet since they were promoted; Genk have only kept two clean sheets on the road this season. Both teams to score is also viable in this game but I’d stay well away from 2.5 and 3.5 goals markets as 1-1 is not outside the realms of possibility.
Result: Mons 1, Genk 2.
Will be more Belgian tips plus some Portuguese games for Sunday, so I’m off to sort those out now.
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