Advice For The nPower Championship 14th January 2012

As well as a new look, I’m occasionally going to be doing something a bit different in 2012, probably at least until Hungary and Croatia return to action.

What you see below are comments for every game in the nPower Championship this weekend, the stuff in bold is what I’m going to be following this weekend and if the other suggestions can help you with decision making then I’m pleased to help. Most of this weekend’s games are basically ‘lay the away team and back under 3.5 goals’ but there are some exceptions – so you’ll have to read them all 😉

I was one of the punters that was affected by Betfair’s ‘technical issues’ following the false start at one of the lunchtime races at Huntingdon on Friday and I’m currently reviewing my account with them – I’m definitely thinking of moving some of my business to Betdaq, but I’ll let you know how that goes. For example, I’m still going to have to stick with Befair for the 1.5 and 3.5 goal bets.

So without further ado, here are the nPower Championship games for this weekend: Derby are my recommendation as home bankers.

If there’s enough time either today or tomorrow, I’ll try to break down each game in the Belgian Jupiler Pro League this weekend – with eight fewer teams it shouldn’t take as long as this did!

Brighton v Bristol City

Lay Bristol City, under 3.5 goals

Result: Brighton 2, Bristol City – WW

Crystal Palace v Leeds

Lay the draw, under 3.5 goals. This is a traditionally low scoring game: the last time there were over 3.5 goals in a meeting between these two at Selhurst Park was in September 1984.

Result: Crystal Palace 1, Leeds 1 – LW

Derby v Coventry

Back Derby, lay Coventry, under 3.5 goals. The visitors have only won once in their last 10 trips to Derby

Result: Derby 1, Coventry 0 – WW

Doncaster v Cardiff

Lay the draw, under 3.5 goals. Head to head form suggests that anything over evens for a draw would be value, but Doncaster have yet to draw at home against a top six side whereas Cardiff have already drawn at Millwall & Nottingham Forest this season. I’m avoiding the result, but taking the under 3.5 goals side – Cardiff won 4-1 at the Keepmoat Stadium last season, but in all the meetings between these two in South Yorkshire there have never been consecutive games when there’s been over 3.5 goals.

Result: Doncaster 0, Cardiff 0 – LW

Hull v Peterborough

Lay Peterborough, under 3.5 goals

Result: Hull 1, Peterborough 0 – WW

Ipswich v Blackpool

Lay Ipswich, leave goals alone. At time of writing, Ipswich are drifting towards 3.0, which is a huge price for a home team.

Result: Ipswich 2, Blackpool 2 – W

Leicester City v Barnsley

Lay Barnsley, under 3.5 goals

Result: Leicester City 1, Barnsley 2 – LW

Middlesbrough v Burnley

Lay the draw, under 3.5 goals. I’m going to go for over 1.5 goals – Middlesbrough can be fairly dour, but Burnley are capable of nicking at least one, having scored in ten of their 12 away games in the Championship this season and in six of their last ten trips to Teeside. As for laying the draw, it”s definitely a black swan – the Clarets haven’t drawn away from Turf Moor yet while Boro are the Championship’s home draw specialists.

Result: Middlesbrough 0, Burnley 2 – WW

Millwall v Birmingham City

Lay the draw, under 3.5 goals. Interestingly, this also came up as a game that Birmingham City were unlikely to win, so I’m going to suggest laying Birmingham draw no bet. Only four of their fourteen league meetings have produced over 3.5 goals.

Result: Millwall 0, Birmingham 6 – LL

Nottingham Forest v Southampton

Lay Southampton, under 3.5 goals

Result: Nottingham Forest 0, Southampton 3 – LW

Portsmouth v West Ham

Lay Portsmouth, leave the goals alone. The hosts are also drifting towards 3.0, but they’re actually one of the better home sides in the Championship and haven’t lost any of their home games against the current top six.

Result: Portsmouth 0, West Ham 1 W

Watford v Reading (televised on Sky Sports 2, 5:20pm)

Lay Watford, leave the goals alone.

Result: Watford 1, Reading 2