nPower Championship Tips For Saturday 10th December

Three games today, theoretically Birmingham City should be home bankers but there are some issues with that game that I’ll come to in a second.

nPower Championship

3:00pm

BIRMINGHAM CITY v Doncaster Rovers

There’s a black swan here in as far as the hosts haven’t lost at home in the Championship yet, but like Ipswich in the game above, Doncaster are having a horrible season for much the same reasons. They’ve also only ever won twice in eight league games at St Andrews and I’ve got to wonder if their win over Southampton last week could result in a big let down this week.

Recommendation: back Birmingham at anything over 1.6 and lay Doncaster draw no bet.

This game also game up as being potentially low scoring – my goal expectancy figure is 2.11 which is 0.05 less than Racing & Football Outlook’s prediction – so it’s worth looking at that aspect of this game too. I’m recommending over 1.5 goals, which is based in part on Doncaster’s inability to keep a clean sheet.

Result: Birmingham 2, Doncaster Rovers 1 – another late winner for the hosts.

Burnley v Portsmouth

A bit of a puzzle here as Burnley’s home form hasn’t been as good as it was in 2010/11 so I don’t feel comfortable recommending them for a win but as I mentioned last week, Portsmouth are horrible on the road. It’s also worth noting that Burnley haven’t beaten Portsmouth at home since 1982 but the best chance of that not happening today is a draw.

Recommendation: lay Portsmouth outright but leave the Burnley win alone.

Result: Burnley 0, Portsmouth 1…the record continues.

5:20pm – live on Sky Sports 2

Barnsley v Ipswich Town

The Tykes are more or less performing at the same level as they were last season at Oakwell but Ipswich are in free fall, caused largely by a catastrophic decline in their away form since last season. They’ve also only won once in their last five trips to Barnsley.

Recommendation: back Barnsley at 2.0 or more, lay Ipswich draw no bet.