Minor League Euro Tips For November 4th 2011

Three games from across Europe that should result in the away team not winning, so the usual strategy applies (lay the away side draw no bet) unless the usual problem applies…no market liquidity, but if that’s the case I’ll mention it below. Győr are the home bankers, but at time of writing I was trying to sort out if the game was still on or not.

5pm

Croatia 1.HNL

Slaven Koprivinica v Rijeka

The big issue here is if Slaven can win three home league games in a row – something they’ve not done for three years despite being in the position to do so six times since then. The good news for them is that they’re not playing Dinamo Zagreb and that although Rijeka won this game last season, they’ve not won away since their victory last March (twelve games since) and I can’t see them winning this either.

Incidentally, you might see Slaven referred to as Slaven Belupo – Belupo is a pharmaceutical company, Koprivinica is where they’re from.

Recommendation: Lay Rijeka outright (laying them draw no bet is a waste of time due to liquidity) but be warned: this is likely to be a low scoring game so patience is a virtue.

Result: Slaven 1, Rijeka 0 – it took the hosts 70 minutes to score via Marin Jacksinic and they were a man light after Mato Grgic was sent off ten minutes from the end.

Hungary NB1

Győr v Lombard Papa

The hosts are home bankers but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t tell you that you need to be extremely suspicious of perfect home records going into November (there’s another one coming on Saturday). So the issue is whether Papa can get anything here: having won five of their last 20 road trips gives me grounds to think that the best they can hope for is a draw and they’d have to score against a Győr side that are home clean sheet specialists. That’s not beyond Papa, but more worrying for the visitors is their inability to keep clean sheets themselves.

Recommendation: I’ve already tagged Győr as home bankers so I can’t really go back on that. Laying the draw might also be a good idea and  – as the clean sheet stats suggest – this might be another low scoring game (unusual for Hungary) and needless to say at some point Győr’s 100% home record will end. But probably not today.

Result: 3-2 to the hosts, who were 3-0 up with half an hour left.

Belgian Jupiler Pro League

Gent v Mechelen

Unlike the two games mentioned above there could be a few goals here and a Mechelen win is also unlikely. The visitors have only won once away from home so far this season but have also been soundly beaten at Anderlecht (no surprise), promoted Mons (something of a surprise) and have only won one of their last eight games at the Jules Otten Stadion.

Recommendation: both teams to score isn’t guaranteed, but over 2.5 goals looks pretty good to me. There’s no value whatsoever opposing Mechelen.

Result: Gent 6, Mechelen 2.

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