Free nPower Championship Tips 21st/23rd January 2012

When I ran this analysis last week I ended up with a strike rate of 71%, so I’ve done it for this weekend’s games. I got off to a good start in Belgium last night so this might be the way forward from now on.

Anything in bold italics are those I’m going to be playing, but if the extra information helps you with your decision making then I’m pleased with that. Unless otherwise stated, assume all games will be under 3.5 goals. Cardiff are the home bankers this weekend.

Barnsley v Millwall

Lay the draw. both teams to score looks likely, so therefore it’s only logical that neither team will keep a clean sheet. If all those assumptions were correct, then 2-1 either way would be the correct score and Barnsley are currently value for the win.

Result: Barnsley 1, Millwall 3 – both teams scored

Birmingham v Watford

Lay Watford, under 3.5 goals

Result: Birmingham 3, Watford 0 – under 3.5 goals

Blackpool v Crystal Palace

Lay the draw. The Eagles haven’t won at Blackpool since October 1924 and laying the draw could pay out – the last three meetings between these two have ended all square so it’s feasible to suggest laying Crystal Palace draw no bet would make a decent alternative. There’s a possibility that Blackpool could keep a clean sheet here – they’re currently one of four teams in the Championship that have conceded less than 10 goals at home so far this season.

Result: Blackpool 2, Crystal Palace 1 – last minute goal!

Bristol City v Doncaster

Lay the draw – there have only been two tied games at Ashton Gate between these two in the last ten. Having said that, Doncaster have yet to draw away from home, so this is a possible black swan.

Result: Bristol City 2, Doncaster 1

Burnley v Derby

Lay the draw

Result: Burnley 0, Derby 0 – oops!

Cardiff v Portsmouth

Lay Portsmouth, who have only won two of their last ten league games at Cardiff and have only won once away from home this season. Excluding last season’s playoff semi final disaster, Cardiff have only lost four of their last 20 home matches in the Championship.

Result: Cardiff 3, Portsmouth 2 – another late goal, but at one point Pompey were leading.

Coventry v Middlesbrough

Lay the draw

Result: Coventry 3, Middlesbrough 1

Leeds v Ipswich

Lay Ipswich. The issue I have with backing Leeds outright is that they’ve only won three of their last ten home league games against Ipswich. Both teams to score is possible as they’ve both had defensive issues; I was expecting more from these two when the season started.

Result: Leeds 3, Ipswich 1

Peterborough v Brighton

Lay the draw

Result: Peterborough 1, Brighton 2

Reading v Hull 

Lay Hull

Result: Reading 0, Hull 1 – oops!

West Ham v Nottingham Forest

Lay the draw, leave the goals. West Ham have drawn twice at home this season, but Forest have lost both their away games against sides currently in the top six.

Result: West Ham 2, Nottingham Forest 1

Monday 23rd January

Southampton v Leicester (live on Sky Sports 1)

Lay the draw