Free Football Tips For Saturday 11th February

Earlier post this week due to visiting my new niece this weekend. Be aware that the bad weather in the UK may lead to some postponements…and although I took a look around the leagues I follow, there’s nothing for Sunday either.

nPower Championship (3:00pm)

Hull City v Bristol City

Won’t be playing this myself as I’m a Bristol City fan but that’s not stopping anyone else. The best – and most realistic chance of my team getting anything from this is if they can nick a point, but as Hull have won six of the last ten league meetings between us on Humberside I’d be surprised if the hosts lose. Hull’s home form at the KC Stadium has improved slightly on last season’s while Bristol City’s away form has declined by a similar rate.

Recommendation: lay Bristol City – we have some injury and suspension issues for this game, but although this looks like a low scoring game you can almost guarantee that we won’t be the team that scores. Stranger things have happened though…

Result: Hull City 3, Bristol City 0

READING v Coventry City

Not for the first time this season, I’m picking Reading for home bankers – they’re not as good at home as they were last season but that’s down to a poor start following the ‘playoff hangover’ they suffered last season. I suppose the black swan here is that Coventry are on a terrible run away from home (seven straight defeats) and their form has to change at some point, but historically they’ve also been poor at Reading and I can’t see that changing: their regression away from home this season has been catastrophic.

Recommendation: back Reading for the win, but lay Coventry draw no bet as the odds will be better. Don’t forget, when laying you want the odds to be smaller so you can limit your liabilities.

Result: Reading 2, Coventry 0

Crystal Palace v Doncaster Rovers – GAME POSTPONED

Only the sixth league meeting in South London between these clubs and it’s a game that Palace have dominated with five wins – and no draws – since they first met. However…recent form suggests a draw is more than possible. Palace are tough to beat at home but have drawn seven of their last ten home games in the Championship, while this is the sort of time that Doncaster need to start nicking points in order to boost their admittedly slim chances of avoiding relegation.

Significantly, there are also other aspects of this game worth investigating. Over 1.5 goals looks likely: but so does under 3.5 goals and given that I’m not expecting the visitors to win this game this significantly reduces the number of potential correct scores. It’s also worth pointing out that the referee (Darren Deadman) has a much higher yellow card count that the other referees in Saturday’s nPower Championship games and that could also become an issue.

Recommendation: Palace won’t lose this, but it’s debatable whether they’ll win it. Lay Doncaster outright as the draw needs to be factored in somehow. Over 1.5 goals looks likely too.

Blackpool v Portsmouth (live on Sky Sports 2, 5:20pm)

Portsmouth have had the better of their games at Blackpool in recent seasons, but a third consecutive away win at Bloomfield Road by Pompey looks highly unlikely. The hosts might have made a decent alternative home banker but once again Portsmouth’s record at Blackpool means that a draw can’t be completely ruled out.

Blackpool will be playing Everton in the FA Cup next weekend but have a league game at Doncaster Rovers next Tuesday which might be the game they take their eyes off. Can’t see it happening here as there’s a scenario that puts Blackpool in third place if they win.

Recommendation: lay Portsmouth. As I’ve mentioned before, they’re a classic example of a team that is much better at home than they are away.

Result: 1-1 draw.

Belgian Jupiler League

5:00pm

Genk v Lokeren

Goals bet here – over 1.5 goals. My goal expectancy figure for this game is 2.53, which may be a little on the low side considering that the last ten games between these two at Genk have produced an average of 3.4 goals.

Result: Genk 0, Lokeren 1 – a genuine surprise there. Managed to get the stake back thanks to a tiered lay though so all was not lost.

7:00pm

Beerschot v St Truiden

One of the most overwhelming head to head series I think I’ve ever seen – the hosts have won 14 of the last 15 league meetings at the Olympic Stadium – is compromised by Beerschot’s reputation as home draw specialists. Although they’ve only lost once at home this season, they’ve draw six of the remaining 11 games.

Recommendation: lay St. Truiden: you’ll have the draw on your side and I think that’s invaluable for this game.

Result: Beerschot 3, St. Truiden 2.

Watching Brief

Kortrijk v Mons

Didn’t make it on to the final list due to incomplete data on head to head games, but laying Mons wouldn’t be a bad idea if you chose to play this game.

Result: 2-2