All games are 3:00pm BST kickoffs unless stated.
Sky Bet Championship
Brighton & Hove Albion v Derby County
Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away
Brighton: 9-8-3
I’m not including Brighton’s defeat in the playoff semi finals – I count those as cup games – and they lost at home to Newport County in the Capital One Cup on Tuesday night, but I’m really not that bothered by either of those results. The fact is that the Seagulls haven’t lost a regular season league game in 2013.
Derby 4-5-11
The Rams got some positive coverage in a few of the previews I’ve read recently, but I think they’ve been overrated as their away form last season was very poor. Three wins since the end of last September simply isn’t very good at all and the Rams lost all but one of their away games against the top six sides in the Championship last season.
Head to Head (at Brighton in the Football League only)
Clear advantage for the hosts (8-1-4), with the only draw coming in November 2005 – Brighton were relegated at the end of the season whilst Derby finished 20th. I think it’s fair to say that both sides have improved since then. One thing worth mentioning: Brighton haven’t beaten Derby three times in a row since a three game period between April 1959 and December 1960. The Seagulls are on a two game streak.
Goals
Not interested today, but under 2.5 looks likely.
Verdict
Back to lay trade for Brighton and if you’re feeling flush and don’t mind taking a hit if it goes wrong lay Derby.
Result: Brighton 1, Derby 2. The hosts took the lead and I very nearly came close to having the lay on Brighton matched, but the game went Derby’s way. It may indicate that these teams could be going in different directions, but it’s far too early to tell yet.
Charlton Athletic v Middlesbrough
Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away
Charlton 7-5-8
The Addicks managed to win or draw more games than they lost over the last 20 games and finished last season well (four wins on the bounce). Can they win five home league games in a row? They managed it at the end of 2011/12 when they were promoted from League One.
Middlesbrough 5-2-13
Ouch. Boro last won away when everyone was doing their Christmas shopping and only picked up one point from their last twelve aways. Due a road win, but see below.
Head to head in the league at Charlton
Middlesbrough have won the last two meetings fairly convincingly, but there hasn’t been a three game consecutive sequence (ie three home wins, three draws etc.) since Charlton won four straight between April 1951 and September 1953. That strongly suggests that Boro won’t win this game.
Goals
Low scoring, but the intriguing aspect here is Middlesbrough’s inability to score at Charlton. In the last 20 games they’ve failed to score in half of them. Boro have also failed to find the back of the net in eight of their last 20 road games, but Charlton have only kept one clean sheet in their last 20 games. Both teams to score and over 2.5 may be worth keeping onside in this one, but that’s not a recommendation.
Verdict
Lay Middlesbrough, who have more or less started this season in the same way they finished 2012/2013. I’m confident Charlton probably won’t lose, but they were too inconsistent at home last season for me to recommend backing them outright – another way of looking at their 7-5-8 record is that they failed to win 13 of their last 20 games last season. However, if the Addicks win this game, I’d be looking for them to have a decent season in the Championship.
Result: Charlton 0, Middlesbrough 1. I was right to have worries about Charlton yesterday, but once again it’s early days.
(Championship game to watch out for: Leicester v Leeds, which is on Sunday at 4:30pm. Looking for a potential Leicester win.)
Sky Bet League 2
Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away
Burton 15-3-2
A very strong end to the season until the Brewers ran into Bradford City in the playoffs. Only lost once at home last season to sides that finished in the top half, against Chesterfield last September.
Rochdale 7-4-9
Only won two of their last ten aways, but won at both Gillingham and Rotherham earlier last season.
Head to Head in the League at Burton
Only three games to go on, but Rochdale have never won at Burton in the league. I think I’ll file that in the ‘there’s always a first time’ section.
Goals
No idea, not enough head to head to make any decision anyway.
Verdict
Similar approach to the Brighton/Derby game above. Can’t see Rochdale winning, so it’s a back to lay for Burton Albion with a straight lay on Rochdale if you fancy it.
Result: Burton 1, Rochdale 0. The lay on Burton was matched when Peter Cavanaugh was sent off after 7 minutes and a poor afternoon for Dale got worse when Olly Lancashire scored an own goal just before half time.
Scottish League Division 1
Another unnecessary name change, but there were go.
Stenhousemuir v Stranraer
NB: this game is not going in play on Betfair, so trading is unavailable.
Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away
Stenhousemuir 9-5-6
Don’t lose at home that often, although they lost their last game at Ochilview last season – to Stranraer!
Stranraer 3-3-14
Haven’t won consecutive away games at this level since 2005.
Head To Head In The League at Stenhousemuir
Red alert: The hosts haven’t beaten Stranraer at home since December 2002 (four games since then) and over the last 18 meetings Stranraer have never won back to back games at Stenhousemuir. If I was looking at this game purely in HTH terms I’d say lay Stranraer.
Goals
Looks lowish to me, but once again that’s not the angle today so I’ll leave it.
Verdict
Stranraer look weak in this game and I think I’d have been happier backing Stenhousemuir if they’d had a better record against today’s visitors. The angle I like is that although Stranraer have a decent record at Ochilview Park, they’ve not won consecutive games there. Lay Stranraer.
Result: John Gemmill’s strike after 31 minutes ensured three points for Stenhousemuir and another win for the day.
Related articles
- Free Football Tips: Sky Bet Football League, 3rd August 2013 (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)
Trader64's Free Soccer Betting Advice 