Three games from the lower divisions in England and Scotland. Nothing from the Sky Bet Championship this weekend – looks very trappy.
Sky Bet League One
Crewe Alexandra v Tranmere Rovers
Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away
Crewe 11-2-7
The Alex were very unlucky not to beat Rotherham a couple of weeks ago – they conceded a couple of late goals after leading 3-1 for 86 minutes – but they don’t lose many at Gresty Road. Five of their eight home losses last season were against teams that finished above them, so if anything they’re a decent yardstick of which clubs may do well.
Tranmere 7-2-11
I mentioned them a couple of weeks ago. They lost their first game of the season at Walsall but Andy Robinson managed to score their first away goal in the league since February.
Head to Head in the league at Crewe
Crewe have won ten of the last 20 games and haven’t lost any of the last six. Tranmere’s last win was in October 1999, when both teams were in the second tier; Crewe escaped relegation by five points that season. If you’re thinking of playing an Asian handicap, Crewe’s victories in that 20 game sequence have been by an average of 1.6 goals
Goals
Leaving this alone, but 0-0 looks unlikely.
Verdict
I think Tranmere might have to wait a while for their first away victory since March, but the aspect of this game that concerns me the most is that Rovers have now lost seven straight away games. They lost eight in the middle of the 2011/12 season, so they are at least capable of doing that, but a draw cannot be ruled out at all. Look back at the ‘last 20’ section – not many draws there are there? Having said that, there have been a few in the head to head category, but the significant fact is that there haven’t been consecutive draws between these two in the league at Crewe since the mid 1930s. Crewe back to lay looks like the way forward.
Crewe 2, Tranmere 1. Two goals from the highly rated Ryan Colclough and a red card for Tranmere’s Danny Holmes.
Sky Bet League 2
Cheltenham Town v Plymouth Argyle
Anyone referring to this game as a West Country derby needs to take their GCSE Geography again – it’s like saying Arsenal v Aston Villa is a London or a Midlands derby…
Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away
Cheltenham: 12-8-0
RED ALERT: Cheltenham haven’t lost a regular season home game for almost a year (3-1 against Southend on 15th September 2012) so they’re due a defeat. The big question is whether Plymouth are up to the challenge.
Plymouth: 4-4-12
Plymouth lost all but two of their away games against sides that finished in the top ten last season and half of those four wins came against Barnet and Aldershot, who were eventually relegated. From that we can deduce that Argyle aren’t the best of teams away from home
Head to Head in the League at Cheltenham
The hosts have won four of the six meetings at Whaddon Road since Cheltenham joined the football league; Plymouth’s single win came in August 2002 – at the end of that season Cheltenham were relegated.
Goals
Looks low to me. Cheltenham are tight at home (11 clean sheets in the last 20 games) whilst Plymouth failed to score in nine of their last 20 aways. 0-0 looks highly unlikely.
Verdict
This looks like one way traffic to me. The only cloud on the horizon is the lack of home defeats at Cheltenham but I don’t see any particular threat from Plymouth. Cheltenham back to lay, but with a lower lay price than usual – let’s say 1.29 rather than 1.49.
Cheltenham 1, Plymouth 3. That Red Alert would have been worth noticing. If any more come up this season I’ll change my advice accordingly.
Scottish League 1
Brechin City v East Fife
NB will not be available for trading on Betfair. I filled in a customer questionnaire for them this week and in the section ‘Are there any improvements you’d like to see’ I added ‘in play markets for the Scottish lower leagues’.
Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away
Brechin: 12-2-6
Between the end of October and the end of March, Brechin won seven home games in a row. Although that form was unsustainable in the long run, they only lost three of their last seven at home. Two of the defeats in that sequence were against promotion rivals.
East Fife: 4-4-12
Struggled mightily on the road last season; last away win was at Ayr ten days before Christmas and they only picked up three points from their last ten games.
Head To Head In The League At Brechin
Another streaky pattern – Brechin have won the last two games, but before those victories East Fife had won four straight. Worth mentioning that there hasn’t been a draw between the two clubs at Brechin for over a decade but the patterns here indicate strongly that the hosts won’t lose.
Goals
Over 2.5 goals looks inevitable, but is currently uncompetitively priced and can’t be traded in play. Brechin and their opponents have averaged exactly four goals per game over their last 20 homes (including a nine, a seven and two six goal games) whilst East Fife’s last 20 aways have produced an average of 3.45 goals (including an eight and six goal games). In their last meeting, Brechin won 6-0.
Verdict
I think the general strategy for untradeable games like this in the Scottish lower divisions this season is to lay the visitors – at least that way you’re keeping two of the three possible outcomes onside. So I’m recommending laying East Fife.
Brechin 2, East Fife 0
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