>Last full set of games before the next international break, I’m actually going to cautiously recommend an away win this weekend as well as give you a few games to avoid. Assume that the Strategy With No Name should be used in all games – apart from one notable exception, which I’ll come to in a minute. All games kick off at 3pm GMT on Saturday afternoon.
nPower Championship
Doncaster Rovers v Nottingham Forest
The price for a Doncaster win is tempting, especially as they’ve won three of the last four league meetings between these two in South Yorkshire. Forest haven’t scored at Doncaster since the last time they won there – a 2-1 win in March 2006 – and although a Doncaster clean sheet might be possible under 2.5 goals might be the punt that lands the cash.
Additional information: 75% of games in the Championship have resulted in home wins/draws with an average of 2.74 goals per game…for which we have to thank Leeds and Preston. I’ve no idea when the last 4-6 game was, but Barnet 4, Crewe 7 happened nearly 20 years ago.
nPower League 2
Macclesfield Town v Northampton Town
This is the notable exception I mentioned above but it does come with a word of warning. Northampton have won five of the six league games between these two at Moss Rose since Macclesfield joined the Football League. Having said that, Macclesfield’s home form is poor (five wins in the last 20 home league games) and the last time they won at home and Northampton won away was in April.
I don’t normally go overboard on away wins but a Northampton win could be worth it even though I advised against them in their last away game, as does Under 2.5 goals.
Additional information: 75% of games in League 1 have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.42 goals per game. The relevant stat to this game is that 63% of games in League 1 have resulted in draws/away wins, which would be equivalent of decimal odds of 1.58 (4/7) – the best current price for Northampton/draw is 1.5 (1/2), which is no value whatsoever.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 1
Dundee v Morton
Another Dundee clean sheet (if you can find prices for it) looks possible but I’m going to stick my neck out and predict a Dundee win, based on the fact that Morton have only scored four goals at Dens Park in their last ten league meetings. Dundee have a very stingy defence, so under 2.5 goals looks a good bet but it may be even lower than that.
Additional information: 74% of games in the Scottish First Division have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.31 goals per game.
Leave Them Alone
Sunderland v Manchester United
United have a tremendous record at Sunderland (only one defeat in the last ten meetings) but Sunderland are very impressive at the Stadium of Light (only two defeats in the last 20 Premiership games). Could go either way, although Sunderland and the draw are good value. Might be under 2.5 goals but don’t quote me.
West Ham United v Fulham
Touched on Fulham’s poor away record in the Premiership last weekend and their trip across London won’t be one they’re looking forward to, but there are some contradictory signs here. Fulham have won two of the last ten games at Upton Park in the league (last win November 2001, six games ago), but although they haven’t won away this season they’ve not yet lost on their travels either. Fulham’s long term away form may be poor but it is consistent…which can’t be said about West Ham’s home form as they’ve gone backwards.
Tranmere Rovers v Brighton
Last Brighton win on the Wirral was in September 1976 – in the seven league meetings at Tranmere since then, Rovers have won five straight. Could be a surprise for Tranmere but Brighton have only lost twice in their last ten away games in League 1, so this is actually a bit of a puzzle along the same lines as Sunderland v Manchester United. May be a low scoring game.
Queen Of The South v Dunfermline
The Doonhamers’ 2-0 win over Dunfermline last March was time that the hosts had beaten the Pars since the 85/6 season at Palmerston Park – and that was after they’d lost six of the next nine encounters. Dunfermline have only lost once in the league this season (2-0 at Raith Rovers) and although I’d be surprised if they lost this game, I’ve no idea how this might turn out.
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