One each from Croatia, Hungary & Portugal today: although there are still a number of games left to go, it’s interesting that the ‘results’ selections for today are both games that feature clubs in the running for Europa League placings against teams that are fighting relegation battles…in a few weeks time I’ll be avoiding these like the plague as those types of game have a nasty habit of biting me on the bum.
My rule of thumb is usually to stop three games before the end of the season – by the time that these competitions have reached Round 27, the Scandinavian summer leagues will be underway. Which reminds me that I must get the Tippeligaen preview finished…
Hungarian NB1 5:00pm
Győri v Siofok
The hosts are today’s home bankers, but I also recommended Ujpest in their game against Siofok last weekend and that didn’t work out. There are a couple of good reasons not to back Gyori outright:
1.) The price for a Győr win is far too short – I’d peg them at 1.8
2.) There’s a history of draws in this game when it’s played at Győr – six in the last nine.
However, there are also two good reasons to consider backing the hosts:
1.) In the four games between the current top three and the current bottom two, the teams at the top of the table have won convincingly – as in by at least three goals. Siofok lost 7-0 to current champions Videoton in November so the potential for a battering is clearly there.
2.) In four of the last five games after Siofok have picked up a point in an away draw, they’ve gone on to lose their next away game.
Recommendation: back Győr outright but be aware that a draw is a possible outcome – as this game is going in play, an insurance lay is possible, as is a trading opportunity. I’d be thinking along the lines of letting Győr drift to 1.5, backing them at that point with a stop loss of 1.8 and trading out if they drop below 1.2, but it’s worth pointing out that Győr have scored the first goal in seven of their last nine home games in the league and they may not even reach 1.5.
Result: Győr 4, Siofok 1
Croatia 1HNL 5:00pm
Sibenik v Rijeka
Under 3.5 goals. 1HL is currently averaging 2.39 goals per game, which is still more than Sibenik’s home average for the season. Don’t be fooled by the host’s position in the league either – both teams are classic examples sides that are hard to beat at home but dreadful away – and Sibenik have kept the opposition to one goal or less in fourteen of their last 20 home league games.
I would also strongly recommend laying Rijeka at the current price at Betfair – why they’re favourites is beyond me. I think the best they can hope for is a draw.
Result: 2-2 – which is not under 3.5 goals as far as I remember.
Portugal Liga Zon Sagres (8:15pm)
Maritimo v Feirense
Very similar sort of game to the Győr/Siofok match earlier, as Maritimo are also looking to qualify for Europe while Feirense are battling relegation.
However, there’s one big difference – Maritimo’s price is actually pretty competitive. They’re also the club with the most improved home record this season, which has propelled them into contention for a Europa League place for next season.
In terms of being a contest between ‘European Placings v Relegation Threatened Sides’, this looks as if it should be a win for Maritimo, although perhaps not as comfortable a victory as it would be if Feirense were away to the ‘big four’. Maritimo also haven’t drawn at home for a while (nine games) so although I’m fairly confident that Feirense won’t win, it doesn’t mean that the hosts are clear cut winners.
Recommendation: at their current price, Feirense are layable.
Result: Maritimo 2, Feirense 1 – a dramatic late winner in injury time from Brazilian striker Fidelis settled it.
Multiples: remarkably, all three games are going in play on Betfair, which came as a surprise to me as both the Croatian & Hungarian markets could be described as ‘niche’ at best and ‘downright obscure’ at worst. A Győr/Maritimo double would pay out around evens and is tempting as the insurance lays would be cheap (a tiered lay on Győr for £6.31 would return insurance on a £50 stake) but I’d leave the Croatian goals bet out of any multiples due to low value.
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