The international break is a complete joke, but it’s also an excuse to cast the net slightly wider than usual. I’m including a couple of new stats this week.
Win percentage: wins divided by the amount of games. Very popular with British pundits at the moment, even though it doesn’t tell you much – especially about a three outcome sport like football, although I am very happy to use it when evaluating baseball and American football trades. I think it’s a good illustration of how often teams that are favourites don’t win.
Undefeated percentage: wins plus draws divided by the amount of games. A far more interesting way to gauge team performance, especially if you prefer laying poor opponents to backing false favourites.
Sky Bet League One (Live on Sky Sports 1 at 12:00pm BST)
Milton Keynes Dons v Swindon Town
Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away
MK Dons: 9-5-6 (70% undefeated, 45% win percentage)
Have only lost two of their last ten home games but haven’t exactly been convincing recently even though they’re still a pretty good defensive side – they’ve kept nine clean sheets in their last 20 in front of their own fans. Only lost twice against top ten sides last season, but on paper Swindon look like their toughest opponents so far…but read on.
Swindon: 8-3-9 (55% undefeated, 40% win percentage)
A six game away losing streak that has coincided with the departure of Paolo di Canio isn’t anything to write home about and it’s not like it’s unprecedented anyway. Between January and March 2011 the Robins lost seven away games in League One and were eventually relegated a year after having reached the playoffs. Only won two games at sides that finished in last season’s top ten and the defeat at Peterborough in the first game of the season seems to indicate that trend could continue.
Head to Head (League Only at Milton Keynes)
The Dons have won the last three meetings and four of the seven games between the clubs. Swindon’s last win in Buckinghamshire was by the odd goal in three in August 2008.
Goals
Low scoring game in prospect. As I mentioned above, the Dons home defensive record isn’t bad and Swindon have failed to score in five of their last six away games. Over 1.5 may be likely, but at current prices I’d leave that alone: five of the seven encounters between the two sides have seen both clubs score, but Swindon would have to score at least twice to stand a chance of winning and I can’t see that happening.
Verdict
Lay Swindon. I think there’s a very good chance of a draw though, so laying Swindon draw no bet could also work.
Result: 1-1. Swindon took the lead, but then the curse of the red card struck – in my favour for a change. The Dons took advantage and Patrick Bamford equalised.
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Sunday 8th September
Serie B
Modena v Cittadella (2:00pm BST)
Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away (League only)
Modena: 8-8-4 (80% undefeated, 40% win percentage)
Have only lost four of the last 20 but have only won two of the last ten, which is a bit of a worry. Those victories show how inconsistent they are: they beat Sassuolo (who were promoted) and Pro Vercelli (who went down) and obviously weren’t bothered against the bottom eight clubs, recording only one other win against the other strugglers last season.
Cittadella 4-7-9 (55% undefeated, 20% win percentage)
One win in their last ten aways (at relegated Vicenza in April) combined with an inability to score goals on their travels (failed to score in six of those ten games) make Cittadella look like a lay to me, especially as they only managed one win against a side in the top half last season…and Novara had Romano Perticone sent off.
Head to head (in the league at Modena)
Three of the last seven games have been draws and Cittadella have only won once at Modena. It’s Serie B so a draw is probably more likely than normal, but consecutive draws don’t feature in the head to head history.
Goals
Interestingly, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are reasonable value at the moment, which reflects the games between the sides rather than any general trends. Only one of the seven games I could find finished under 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in six of those seven.
Verdict
This game depends on whether you think Cittadella will score or not – Antonio Di Nardo’s penalty at Vicenza in April was the last time they scored on the road but as I mentioned above, they’ve scored in six of their seven games at Modena. The hosts have only kept two clean sheets at home since the end of January so although that looks likely, it would be insane to rule out a draw. So far almost half of the games in Serie B this season have ended in draws and although I’d imagine that would revert to somewhere around 32% of ties last season, the recommendation is to lay Cittadella draw no bet and/or attempt to trade over 2.5 goals.
Result: Modena 2, Cittadella 0. So the lay worked, but the goals trade just failed.
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