Maritimo v Sporting Braga: More Information Than You Need

After yesterday’s head scratchers I’m just going to throw the stats out there for this one….make of them what you will. One thing I would mention is that insurance lays are almost always vital, but I’ll come to that when I get to the recommendation,

Head To Head @ Maritimo (Last 10)

Maritimo lead the series 5-2-3 but Sporting Braga have won only lost one of the last five meetings in Funchal and there has been one or more goals in nine of those ten games.

Implied scoreline: any over 1.5 goals.

Power Rankings

My own, based on finishing positions last season and the ratings at Statto.com. Maritimo are rated C and Braga are rated A.

Maritimo have a substantial disadvantage here – the best they can hope for is a draw. Goals: under 2.5 but this is only Maritimo’s second home game this season against Class A sides (they lost 1-0 at home to Benfica earlier in the season). Braga have beaten Olhanense & Vitoria Setubal this season but lost at Uniao de Leiria, Five of the eight games between C & A sides when C is the host have finished under 1.5 goals, but the remainder finished over 3.5 goals. Based on those figures, this will either be a tight, low scoring game (which favours Maritimo) or Braga will run away with it.

Implied scoreline: 1-0 or 2-0 either way.

Last 20 League Games (Maritimo H, Braga A)

Slight advantage to Maritimo, but both the power rankings and the last 20 games indicate a draw isn’t likely. The only decisive statistic from this point of view is that there should be more than 1.5 goals – 12 of Maritimo’s last 20 home games have featured at least 1.5 goals, 13 of Braga’s last 20 away games in the league have featured more than 1.5 goals.

Implied scoreline: any over 1.5 goals

2011/12 So Far

Maritimo have scored in five of their seven home league games this season (just over 70%) while keeping clean sheets in only two of them. Braga have scored in five of their eight away league games this season (62.5%) but have only kept clean sheets in three of those games.

Current Top Five

Both clubs are currently in the European qualification places and when looking at this season’s games between the top five the advantage shifts back to Maritimo in so far as they may not lose. However, there’s also a case to be made that there’ll be under 2.5 goals and both teams will score.

Implied scoreline: 1-1 draw,

Recommendation: back over 1.5 goals but used tiered lays for potential stake recovery. When I mean ‘tiered’ I mean lay under 1.5 goals at lower prices – for example, I’d backed over 1.5 goals for £50 at 1.44, I’d want to lay under 1.5 goals at something like 1.34, 1.24, 1.14 and 1.04 (each paying out £12.50) just in case this game turns into a defensive battle with either no or one goal in it. Total liability (if matched) would be just over £7.00, but if you felt adventurous you could just lay at 1.14 and 1.04, which would cost about a fiver in liabilities if you lost. Of course, if you didn’t give a monkeys you’d let the bet run, but you’d be £50 down if the game finished either goalless or 1-0 either way.

Result: Maritimo 1, Sporting Braga 2.

Now you see how it’s done.