NFL Season 2013

I’m not going through my methodologies again but you can find the dotted around the site. Simply go to the NFL section in the subject cloud and there they are.

Teams I’m ruling out immediately:

Baltimore Ravens (defending Champions) and both New York teams (co-hosts). The Giants also belong in the ‘divisional runner up with less than ten wins profile’, which has generated precisely zero Super Bowl winners since the 1992 season. The Jets finished 7-9 in the AFC East last season – 7-9 teams have also won no Super Bowls in the same time frame.

Teams I’m ruling in:

AFC: New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos (the current favourites)

All of those teams had winning records last season and either won or finished second in their divisions. New England are always on this list, but there’s one very important thing to remember about the Patriots:

They play in a soft division, they normally lose to better teams in the playoffs and both Belichick and Brady are ancient in NFL terms.

Yet there is a very compelling reason to think that the Patriots could make a run at the title. I’ll come to that later.

Coaches that qualify for the ‘five seasons and under’ rule: Chuck Pagano (Indianapolis) and John Fox (Denver Broncos) – although Fox is at a disadvantage when it comes to length of tenure. Only two coaches in the last two decades have won the Super Bowl in their third year with their team and both of those (Dick Vermeil and Mike Shanahan) managed that feat before the turn of the century.

The ‘logical’ choice for the AFC representative is Indianapolis. Their home schedule doesn’t look too hard (Raiders, Dolphins and Jaguars) and although face three playoff teams at Lucas Oil Stadium (Seahawks, Broncos and Texans) even if they finished 5-3 at home that’s not too shabby. They play San Francisco, Houston and Cincinatti on the road (as well as the Jaguars and the Chiefs), so 10-6 or better isn’t beyond them. The major knock against them would be if Andrew Luck regresses.

NFC: Washington, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers (current favourites to win the NFC) and Seattle Seahawks

All of those teams had winning records last season and either won or finished second in their divisions – the Chicago finished 3rd in the NFC North, but I’ll come to them in a minute.

Coaches that qualify for the ‘five seasons and under rule’: Mike Shananhan (Washington), Leslie Frazier (Minnesota), Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco) and Pete Carroll (Seattle).

The Bears are an intriguing long shot. In the last two decades four teams that finished third in their divisions went on to win the Super Bowl. Two of those teams (the 2000 Ravens and the 2007 Giants) were wild cards in the following season and although new coach Marc Trestman is in his first season with the team, so was Jon Gruden when he coached the 2002 Buccaneers. If Chicago reaches the playoffs, look out: although they could come a cropper in mid season when they face four of last season’s playoff teams in eight games.

I must admit I’m not sold on the 49ers. Since 1992 none of the teams that lost the Super Bowl went on to win it at the end of the following season and although I’d expect San Francisco to contend for the playoffs, they’ve got seven games against playoff teams from last season – one more than the Seahawks.

New York Weather in February: A Major Intangible

I think this year’s Super Bowl venue may be crucial. We’re looking at an average temperature of 35 degrees Fahrenheit (aka just above freezing to those of us outside the US) in New York in January so teams that can function outside in the winter will have a massive advantage.

This is where New England re-enters the equation with a vengeance. On average it’s five degrees colder in Foxboro than New York during the winter, the Patriots play outside on artificial turf and they play at least one road game in New York every season.

The only team that comes close to that type of profile is Indianapolis, but are they really going to retract the roof late in the season so the Colts can practice in New York style conditions? The climate and the altitude are very similar.

The one Super Bowl match up I’d be amazed to see: Houston Texans v Atlanta Falcons (80/1 with Sky Bet). The coaches are too ‘old’ in their current roles, they are ‘warm weather’ teams even though Atlanta plays in a Dome, I think both the Colts and the Saints are stronger and although they reach the post season regularly they always disappoint.

Recommendations (EW)

These may change throughout the season. I will be backing the following teams but will also be looking to lay them off if/when the odds become favourable during either the regular season or the post season.

AFC:

New England (10/1)

My theory is that Belichick will pack it in if/when he wins another Super Bowl and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Brady does too. Only one 14th year coach has won the title since 1992 (Bill Cowher, 2005 Steelers), but the ‘weather’ is too hard to ignore and they’ve got a favourable schedule. Will probably win the AFC East at a canter, so they instantly become tradeable.

Denver (7/1F)

Similar story to New England: weak division, favourable schedule, veteran QB, similar home weather in the winter to New York (which – combined with the altitude) could be a nightmare for some teams in the playoffs) and an experienced coach in his second year with the team. Look to trade them.

NFC

Green Bay (14/1)

Only one eighth year coach has won the title since 1992 (Tom Coughlin, 2011 Giants) so it’s not inconceivable that Mike McCarthy could do the same. However, they have a brutal schedule in the first half of the season (five of their first eight games are against playoff teams and four of those are on the road) so we should know how good the Packers are sooner rather than later. The Bears may be in a position to take advantage.

Seattle (9/1)

It’s a little bit warmer in Seattle in the winter than it is in New York, but all might take for the Seahawks to do well is for San Francisco to play a little worse than they did last year. Finishing half a game behind the Super Bowl runners up shows how good this team actually is and with Pete Carroll now in his fourth year this could be a memorable season.

Washington (40/1 – which looks like the value bet of the year)

Mike Shanahan has been there and done it before, so that’s not worth any further explanation. Having already written off the Giants and with no confidence in either the Cowboys or the Eagles, I think the Redskins can follow up on last year’s divisional title – especially as they have only got to play a single playoff team (San Francisco) at Fedex Field in 2013.

Super Bowl Prediction

Denver Broncos v Seattle Seahawks (20/1 William Hill). If that happens and Peyton Manning wins, he’ll quit.

 

NFL Divisional Round: Saturday

Unless specifically stated, I’ve used statistics over the last 20 seasons. I’ve looked at these games from the point of view of how the seeding system has panned out rather than how the teams have performed against each other.

Denver Broncos v Baltimore Ravens

AFC 1 v AFC 4

The top seed in the AFC has progressed to the Conference Championship round 11 times in the last 20 seasons compared to five times by the fourth seed so on face value the Broncos should win this. The team with the better regular season record has won AFC1 v AFC4 games in 5 of last 8. Both Pittsburgh & Buffalo had 11-5 records in 1992.

As I’m very fond of saying…’however, it’s never as straightforward as that’. In the nine games between AFC1 and AFC 4 since 1992, the higher seed has won five but the higher seed hasn’t won consecutive games of this type since 1993/94. Denver’s 13-3 regular season record puts them on the same level as the 1997 Kansas City Chiefs (lost at home to Denver), 2000 Tennessee Titans (lost at home to Baltimore) and last season’s New England Patriots (beat Denver), so there’s absolutely no guarantee that the higher seed with the best record should will win this; it’s also worth remembering that Denver have got such a good record because they were playing in a poor division. They had a ridiculously easy home record: they played one team over .500 (Houston) and lost it; only two of their 13 wins came against teams that were over .500 for the season, but significantly those were at Baltimore and Cincinnati.

Baltimore also seems to have something of an advantage when it comes to games between AFC1 and AFC4 where both teams had won their divisions. Of the four games that fall into this category, the lower seed were 2-2. But there are weaknesses with the Ravens too: they lost all three road games against teams that subsequently made the playoffs this season. However, two of those defeats (against Washington and Cincinnati) were less than a touchdown and they only got battered by the Texans.

AFC1 v AFC4 games haven’t been particularly close either. Only three of the nine games had a margin of victory (referred to as MOV from this point onwards) of 10 points or less (two of those were won by the lower seed) with the average MOV being 17.5 points. Two of those tighter games were won by the lower seed: Denver at Kansas in 1997, New England at San Diego in 2006.

Market report (Friday morning): a very short priced favourite with a 9.5 point spread? That looks like trouble to me. There are a couple of major intangibles in this game: altitude and the possibility that tonight could be Ray Lewis’ last game. However, Ray Lewis won’t want to be his last game – and that’s definitely something to consider.

Verdict: Broncos are far too short to back so I’ll take Ravens +9.5.

San Francisco v Green Bay

NFC 2 v NFC 3

This particular seeding matchup has been played 10 times since 1992: higher seed has won 7 of these games. Potentially a far closer game that the Denver/Baltimore match up, with six of those ten settled by ten points or less; the team with the better record has won half of those games.

San Francisco has an obvious advantage here, and that’s emphasised by the following numbers:

* 4-3 against ‘quality’ opponents (2-1 at home) – that’s opponents that finished the season 0.500 or better.

* 3-2 v playoff teams (all the more remarkable when four of those games were on the road)

* 1 dominate, 3 Guts, 1 Skate, 5 stomps.

Basically what that means is that this is a team that can grind out wins against good teams and is capable of battering bad ones.

Green Bay Packers

* 5-5 v quality opponents (2-4 on the road)

* 3-4 v playoff teams (1-3 on the road),

* 2 dominates (including last week against Minnesota), 1 gut, 3 skates, 2 stomps.

So the Packers aren’t as strong on the road as they are at home, they’re not as capable of big wins as the 49ers are but if they’re in a position to beat a good team they’re able to capitalise on it – but on the other hand, they seem to have the capacity to struggle against poorer sides. All but one of their losses on the road were by a TD or less (they were soundly beaten by the Giants), which emphasizes the point I made earlier: this should be a close game.

The psychological advantage could belong to San Francisco tonight: they won at Lambeau Field in Week 1 so they know they can beat the Packers, but the impressive thing about the 49ers is how they rebounded from the home defeat by the Giants earlier in the season. Since then they’ve won four straight at home including victories over the Seahawks and the Bears, but although a lot of people are down on Colin Kaepernick, I’m not: Kaepernick isn’t Joe Webb or RGIII on one leg and the game is being played at Candlestick…where all kinds of magical things happen in the playoffs.

Recommendation: the point spread early on Saturday evening is three, so I’m going for San Francisco -3. A close game, but the home team with a better record normally wins this one.

Results: win and another win.

 

NFL Wild Card Weekend: Saturday

The Wild Card Round is always an interesting one, as I suspect that it tells us more about what might happen next season than what happened in this one. For example, three of the four AFC Wild Card teams from last season have reached the playoffs again in 2012, while only one of the NFC Wild Card teams from 2011 (Atlanta) has qualified for the post season this year. That fits in with my general – and badly researched – theory that at this point in time, although the AFC is dominated by fewer teams, the NFC is more competitive.

I looked at the markets on Thursday morning and I was struck by the following:

* Baltimore, Green Bay, Houston and Seattle are all favourites to win their games, but Seattle were the only team over 1.5. Somebody somewhere is going to think the other three are worth lumping on: but let me make this abundantly clear straight away – the Packers are probably far too short not only for their game this weekend, but also in the outright market.

* Furthermore, in 13 of the last 20 seasons, at least one of the top seeds has been knocked out in the Wild Card round, with half of the NFC 3 teams being ‘one and done’ by the end of the first round. So if you’re thinking of backing the Packers, beware.

* It’s possible that the winners of these games may reach the Super Bowl. Since 1992, seven Wild Card teams have reached the game and five have won it – but half of the last six Lombardi Trophies have been won by Wild Card teams. Having said that, none of those teams were the top seeds in the Wild Card round (bad news for Green Bay and Houston) but two came from teams that were ranked outsiders (good news for the Bengals and the Vikings).

* There’s also a correlation between Wild Card Super Bowl participants and performance during the previous season: five of the seven teams that reached the game had either won or finished second in their division at the end of the previous season. The Ravens, Texans and Packers have a big advantage in that respect: the Vikings don’t stand a chance of winning the Super Bowl, but may not have to do that to have a massive impact on the post season. I’ll come to that in a minute.

* Looking at the games purely in terms of how successful the seeds have been, Seattle don’t stand a chance against Washington (which is not what the bookies think), while Houston should have no problems with Cincinnati.

SATURDAY

Houston Texans v Cincinnati Bengals

AFC 3 v AFC 6 in a  rematch of last season’s Wild Card Game, which the Texans won. The higher seed has won this game in 15 of the last 20 contests and six of the last 10, but a word of warning: Houston’s victory last season was the first time the third seed in the AFC had won this game since 2007.

Houston: one win in one game in the Wild Card Round (last season’s game) while the Bengals are 0-3 in Wild Card games since 1992. The Texans are 2-1 all time against the Bengals at home.

Over the last two decades this particular game (3rd seed v 6th seed) has averaged 44.05 points in total, which rises to 45.3 when the home team wins. The average margin of victory for the home team is 14.66 points (ie just over two touchdowns). When the away side has won, it looks as if it’s defense that has won it as the average points per game is reduced to 40.2 with a margin of victory of exactly 11. Defensively speaking, these are two very good teams: Cincinnati is 6th in total defense, Houston is 7th in total defense.

Additional stats: I normally use this resource from Football Outsiders to take an overall look at the strength of regular season schedule and the two teams stack up quite evenly – the main difference seems to be that Houston flew out of the blocks early in 2012 while the Bengals seem to have momentum on their side.

Houston: 4 stomps, 2 guts, 3 skates, one dominate. 3-4 against other teams that qualified for the playoffs.

Cincinnati: 4 stomps, 2 guts, 2 skates, one dominate. 2-2 against teams that qualified for the playoffs.

Cold Hard Football Facts is also an excellent resource generally, but their ‘Quality Standings’ also emphasise the following point: underestimate the Bengals at your own risk.

Recommendation: I’d consider laying Cincinnati in this game, but over the years I’ve developed a soft spot for them so I may not play this one. I’d also consider laying Houston for the Superbowl. In the past 20 seasons, the winner of the AFC 3 v AFC 6 games has failed to reach the Big One: if the Texans win, they face New England at Gillette Stadium. Houston have only played there twice and have lost both games by at least three TDs, including a 42-14 hammering a few weeks ago.

Green Bay Packers v Minnesota Vikings

NFC 3 v NFC 6: and if there are going to be any major upsets in the Wild Card Round this might be where to look. NFC 3 teams have only won half of these games since 1992 and two of the last five Super Bowl winners (the Giants in 2007 and the Packers in 2010) have come from the bottom half of the NFC draw.

Not only that, since 1992, Green Bay is 1-3 at home in this particular game: their last win came against the Falcons following the 1995 season: since then they’ve lost to both Atlanta and Minnesota (2004) in the Wild Card Round. The Vikings are 2-3 as NFC 6 seeds since 1992, which heavily implies that being a road dog is something that Minnesota is not only comfortable with, but thrives on. The big problem is their record at Green Bay: five wins in the last 20 meetings isn’t exactly a confidence booster.

Over the last two decades, the 3rd v 6th game in the NFC has been a lower scoring match up than the equivalent fixture in the AFC, but only six of those contests were settled by 10 points or less

Additional stats: Green Bay: 2 stomps, one gut, 3 skates and one dominate. 2-4 against other teams that qualified for the playoffs. I’ll repeat that: 2-4 against other teams that qualified for the playoffs.

Minnesota: 2 stomps, 2 guts, 3 skates and one dominate. 3-4 against other teams that qualified for the playoffs.

Recommendation: it would be a major shock if Green Bay lost this game, but at 1.27 I simply cannot recommend backing the Packers. This is a cheap lay and could pay handsomely. Also worth laying the Packers for the whole thing.

 

NFL: Fill In The Blanks & We Have The Superbowl Winners

Let’s cut to the chase:

* 16 of the last 20 Super Bowl winners won their division in the same season as they won the Super Bowl (80%)

* 19 of the last 20 Super Bowl runners up won their division in the same season they reached the Super Bowl and lost (95%)

* 15 of the last 20 Super Bowls have featured teams that won their division that season.

With only two names left to fill in on the list of 2012 Divisional Winners, it’s not really that much of a surprise that the teams that I mentioned in September appear on that list. I highlighted Baltimore and Atlanta at the time, along with the San Francisco 49ers (still everything to play for) and the Detroit Lions (major regression this season). I deliberately left the Packers and the Patriots off the list at that point, but having won their divisions they come back into play in my post season thinking.

However, there are some other adjustments that can be made and I’ll outline my thinking below.

AFC

Of the AFC teams that reached the last 20 Super Bowls, 17 won their division in the season they reached the big game and 11 had won their division in the previous season.

Intriguingly, all four divisional champions won their divisions last season – and that’s the formula for success that produced the last four AFC Super Bowl winners. However, we need to look at a team that won at least 10 games during the previous season and that’s where this analysis becomes slightly clearer: only the Patriots, Ravens & Texans qualify.

NFC

Of the NFC teams that reached the last 20 Super Bowls, 18 won their division in the season they reached the big game but only eight had won their division during the previous season.

It’s a case of incomplete information here until next weekend as the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons have already won the North and South divisions and the East and West divisions will be settled next Sunday. However, I’d say that having not won their division last season gives the Falcons an advantage over the Packers overall, but ideally I need to know which teams will be joining them as divisional winners before making any guesses.

Overall

Although there are two teams missing, it doesn’t mean I can’t recommend a strategy. I’m going to back (EW) the six divisional winners we already know for the Super Bowl and then probably dutch all the combinations in the ‘name the finalist’ market – which at the moment is too expensive and is only available on Betfair.

 

NFL 2012 Preview

I know it’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but I still count the NFL as ‘football’ and as it’s one of my favourite sports I like to have a punt on it. Whether or not I’ll be able to watch any games on Sky Sports this year is another matter.

If you take a look back at my NFL posts over the past couple of years, one of the themes that keeps cropping up is that it’s possible to tell which teams are in with a shout of the Super Bowl before the season starts. Like every other antepost bet there’s a degree of risk involved but it’s always fun to take a look at what might happen and I’ll be doing something similar with the UEFA Champions League later in the week.

It’s also worth reminding anyone who’s reading this that I’ve got the last two winners of the actual Super Bowl game wrong. I think I may concentrate on the prop bets in February – the easiest one is dutching the quarterbacks of the participating teams for the MVP Trophy.

This season I’m not going to go over the same ground as I’ve done before so I’m going to separate the basic numbers from the analysis and give them their own page, which you can find here.

However, new for 2012 is something that occurred to me while I was cooking dinner one night: coaches. As in how long coaches that have won the Superbowl had been in the job with their current team before they won the Lombardi trophy with that team. A quick analysis came up with the following stats:

16 of the last 20 Superbowl winning coaches were between their second and fifth year with the team when they won it. For the record, in 2012 the coaches that fit that particular bill as well as being in charge of teams that satisfy most of the other conditions I look at are: Jim Harbaugh (49ers), Jim Schwartz (Lions), John Harbaugh (Ravens) & Mike Smith (Falcons). At a current market average price of 14/1 the 49ers are the shortest priced of that group.

The other aspect that can sometimes give us a clue about who might win Super Bowl XLVII is the venue. The game will take place at the Louisiana Superdome in February (which automatically rules out the New Orleans Saints – no team has ever won a Super Bowl in their own stadium) but here’s the most important stat:

The NFC are 4-2 in Superbowls at the Louisiana Superdome and 5-4 in Superbowls in Louisiana (that includes the three games at the Tulane Stadium in the 1970s). Worth remembering come next February.

Some early predictions:

* New England Patriots will win the AFC East but probably won’t win the Superbowl. They’re a good team in a poor division but they haven’t won a World Championship since 2004 – which was Bill Belichick’s fifth season with the team. I think we’re looking at the end of an era in New England: neither Brady or Belichick are getting any younger and the Patriots reputation seems to have been built on three titles in four seasons, which happened almost a decade ago.

* The current favourites – Green Bay Packers – are a good team in a decent division but both the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions will be after them this season. The Packers have an interesting schedule that includes six playoff teams: San Francisco and New Orleans at home, Houston and the New York Giants on the road and two games against the Lions. It’s well worth remembering that collectively the NFC North has reached one Superbowl since the realignment and the Bears – not the Packers – were the team that won it.

* Whoever wins the AFC West won’t win the Superbowl – you have to go back to 1998 for an AFC West winner (Denver Broncos) and with none of the four teams posting a winning record in 2011 I can’t see it happening.

* Although it’s not unheard of, it’s unlikely the Giants will repeat this season. I’ve already mentioned the Saints in terms of the curse of the home venue and the suspension of Sean Payton for the entire season doesn’t help them either.

So Who Are The Leading Contenders?

With only two of the 32 teams currently under 10.00 for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, there’s definitely some each way value out there. These are the teams that I think could provide that value, especially if – as I expect – most of them should reach the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens 

Won the AFC North last season with a 12-4 record, HC John Harbaugh will be in his 5th year with the team this season. The big problem for the Ravens could be the schedule: they face eight playoff teams in 2012.

Detroit Lions

2nd in the NFC Central with a 10-6 record, HC Jim Schwartz will be in his 4th year with the team this season. Only have to face five playoff teams in 2012. Play in a domed stadium on artificial turf, which might be an advantage when it comes to the Superbowl.

Atlanta Falcons

2nd in the NFC South with a 10-6 record, HC Mike Smith will be in his 5th year with the team this season. Face five playoff teams in 2012. Another dome/artificial turf team.

San Francisco 49ers

Won the NFC West with a 13-3 record. HC Jim Harbaugh (John’s brother) will be in his second year with the team this season. Five five playoff teams in 2012 but unlike Detroit and Atlanta they’ll only play two of those games at Candlestick Park.

Additionally there are two other teams who I don’t think will win the Super Bowl but I wouldn’t be surprised if they reached the post season. Cincinnati Bengals actually satisfy the criteria that has determined Superbowl losers over the past two decades: finishing with a 9-7 record in third position at the end of the previous season actually makes them a similar type of team to the 2010 Steelers, the 2000 Giants and the 1998 Falcons. There are a couple of immediate drawbacks with them: Marvin Lewis will be in his tenth season as head coach and they play four playoff teams at home in 2012.

Of course, the big problem with the Bengals is that they’re in the same division as both the Steelers and the Ravens. However, Andy Dalton and company made the playoffs from the AFC North last season and there’s no reason to doubt their ability to do so again.

Another team that really intrigues me is Houston. When I wrote this back in January, I assumed that Peyton Manning would stay with the Colts. I have no doubt that Andrew Luck will be a good QB for Indianapolis, this season the AFC South is about the Texans and the Titans. HC Gary Kubiak is in his seventh season with the Texans but the thing I like most about them is their schedule: only two playoff teams will be playing at the Reliant Stadium in 2012. You can still get 10/1 for them if you look, but they’re under double figures with most of the UK firms. The Texans definitely have tradeable value.

Recommendations: I’m going to leave the Packers and Patriots alone in the outright markets for now, as it’s always possible to take a ‘late’ position on them if they drift to favourable odds. The Saints and Giants are too big to lay right now, but both should drop into single figures by mid-season if they appear to be performing as well as they were last season.

I’m going to back Baltimore, Detroit, Atlanta, Houston and San Francisco E/W at the start of the season for minimum stakes and make adjustments throughout the season.

For the Bengals, I’m thinking of advising backing them to qualify for the playoffs at minimum stakes, although I need to do further research to see if there are any patterns or tendencies to look for when attempting to identify Wild Card teams.

As for individual games, I currently have five on the shortlist and I’ll post my thoughts on them nearer the weekend. Although I won’t be betting on the kickoff game, I think the Giants should beat the Cowboys.