NFL: Fill In The Blanks & We Have The Superbowl Winners

Let’s cut to the chase:

* 16 of the last 20 Super Bowl winners won their division in the same season as they won the Super Bowl (80%)

* 19 of the last 20 Super Bowl runners up won their division in the same season they reached the Super Bowl and lost (95%)

* 15 of the last 20 Super Bowls have featured teams that won their division that season.

With only two names left to fill in on the list of 2012 Divisional Winners, it’s not really that much of a surprise that the teams that I mentioned in September appear on that list. I highlighted Baltimore and Atlanta at the time, along with the San Francisco 49ers (still everything to play for) and the Detroit Lions (major regression this season). I deliberately left the Packers and the Patriots off the list at that point, but having won their divisions they come back into play in my post season thinking.

However, there are some other adjustments that can be made and I’ll outline my thinking below.

AFC

Of the AFC teams that reached the last 20 Super Bowls, 17 won their division in the season they reached the big game and 11 had won their division in the previous season.

Intriguingly, all four divisional champions won their divisions last season – and that’s the formula for success that produced the last four AFC Super Bowl winners. However, we need to look at a team that won at least 10 games during the previous season and that’s where this analysis becomes slightly clearer: only the Patriots, Ravens & Texans qualify.

NFC

Of the NFC teams that reached the last 20 Super Bowls, 18 won their division in the season they reached the big game but only eight had won their division during the previous season.

It’s a case of incomplete information here until next weekend as the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons have already won the North and South divisions and the East and West divisions will be settled next Sunday. However, I’d say that having not won their division last season gives the Falcons an advantage over the Packers overall, but ideally I need to know which teams will be joining them as divisional winners before making any guesses.

Overall

Although there are two teams missing, it doesn’t mean I can’t recommend a strategy. I’m going to back (EW) the six divisional winners we already know for the Super Bowl and then probably dutch all the combinations in the ‘name the finalist’ market – which at the moment is too expensive and is only available on Betfair.

 

NFL 2012 Preview

I know it’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but I still count the NFL as ‘football’ and as it’s one of my favourite sports I like to have a punt on it. Whether or not I’ll be able to watch any games on Sky Sports this year is another matter.

If you take a look back at my NFL posts over the past couple of years, one of the themes that keeps cropping up is that it’s possible to tell which teams are in with a shout of the Super Bowl before the season starts. Like every other antepost bet there’s a degree of risk involved but it’s always fun to take a look at what might happen and I’ll be doing something similar with the UEFA Champions League later in the week.

It’s also worth reminding anyone who’s reading this that I’ve got the last two winners of the actual Super Bowl game wrong. I think I may concentrate on the prop bets in February – the easiest one is dutching the quarterbacks of the participating teams for the MVP Trophy.

This season I’m not going to go over the same ground as I’ve done before so I’m going to separate the basic numbers from the analysis and give them their own page, which you can find here.

However, new for 2012 is something that occurred to me while I was cooking dinner one night: coaches. As in how long coaches that have won the Superbowl had been in the job with their current team before they won the Lombardi trophy with that team. A quick analysis came up with the following stats:

16 of the last 20 Superbowl winning coaches were between their second and fifth year with the team when they won it. For the record, in 2012 the coaches that fit that particular bill as well as being in charge of teams that satisfy most of the other conditions I look at are: Jim Harbaugh (49ers), Jim Schwartz (Lions), John Harbaugh (Ravens) & Mike Smith (Falcons). At a current market average price of 14/1 the 49ers are the shortest priced of that group.

The other aspect that can sometimes give us a clue about who might win Super Bowl XLVII is the venue. The game will take place at the Louisiana Superdome in February (which automatically rules out the New Orleans Saints – no team has ever won a Super Bowl in their own stadium) but here’s the most important stat:

The NFC are 4-2 in Superbowls at the Louisiana Superdome and 5-4 in Superbowls in Louisiana (that includes the three games at the Tulane Stadium in the 1970s). Worth remembering come next February.

Some early predictions:

* New England Patriots will win the AFC East but probably won’t win the Superbowl. They’re a good team in a poor division but they haven’t won a World Championship since 2004 – which was Bill Belichick’s fifth season with the team. I think we’re looking at the end of an era in New England: neither Brady or Belichick are getting any younger and the Patriots reputation seems to have been built on three titles in four seasons, which happened almost a decade ago.

* The current favourites – Green Bay Packers – are a good team in a decent division but both the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions will be after them this season. The Packers have an interesting schedule that includes six playoff teams: San Francisco and New Orleans at home, Houston and the New York Giants on the road and two games against the Lions. It’s well worth remembering that collectively the NFC North has reached one Superbowl since the realignment and the Bears – not the Packers – were the team that won it.

* Whoever wins the AFC West won’t win the Superbowl – you have to go back to 1998 for an AFC West winner (Denver Broncos) and with none of the four teams posting a winning record in 2011 I can’t see it happening.

* Although it’s not unheard of, it’s unlikely the Giants will repeat this season. I’ve already mentioned the Saints in terms of the curse of the home venue and the suspension of Sean Payton for the entire season doesn’t help them either.

So Who Are The Leading Contenders?

With only two of the 32 teams currently under 10.00 for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, there’s definitely some each way value out there. These are the teams that I think could provide that value, especially if – as I expect – most of them should reach the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens 

Won the AFC North last season with a 12-4 record, HC John Harbaugh will be in his 5th year with the team this season. The big problem for the Ravens could be the schedule: they face eight playoff teams in 2012.

Detroit Lions

2nd in the NFC Central with a 10-6 record, HC Jim Schwartz will be in his 4th year with the team this season. Only have to face five playoff teams in 2012. Play in a domed stadium on artificial turf, which might be an advantage when it comes to the Superbowl.

Atlanta Falcons

2nd in the NFC South with a 10-6 record, HC Mike Smith will be in his 5th year with the team this season. Face five playoff teams in 2012. Another dome/artificial turf team.

San Francisco 49ers

Won the NFC West with a 13-3 record. HC Jim Harbaugh (John’s brother) will be in his second year with the team this season. Five five playoff teams in 2012 but unlike Detroit and Atlanta they’ll only play two of those games at Candlestick Park.

Additionally there are two other teams who I don’t think will win the Super Bowl but I wouldn’t be surprised if they reached the post season. Cincinnati Bengals actually satisfy the criteria that has determined Superbowl losers over the past two decades: finishing with a 9-7 record in third position at the end of the previous season actually makes them a similar type of team to the 2010 Steelers, the 2000 Giants and the 1998 Falcons. There are a couple of immediate drawbacks with them: Marvin Lewis will be in his tenth season as head coach and they play four playoff teams at home in 2012.

Of course, the big problem with the Bengals is that they’re in the same division as both the Steelers and the Ravens. However, Andy Dalton and company made the playoffs from the AFC North last season and there’s no reason to doubt their ability to do so again.

Another team that really intrigues me is Houston. When I wrote this back in January, I assumed that Peyton Manning would stay with the Colts. I have no doubt that Andrew Luck will be a good QB for Indianapolis, this season the AFC South is about the Texans and the Titans. HC Gary Kubiak is in his seventh season with the Texans but the thing I like most about them is their schedule: only two playoff teams will be playing at the Reliant Stadium in 2012. You can still get 10/1 for them if you look, but they’re under double figures with most of the UK firms. The Texans definitely have tradeable value.

Recommendations: I’m going to leave the Packers and Patriots alone in the outright markets for now, as it’s always possible to take a ‘late’ position on them if they drift to favourable odds. The Saints and Giants are too big to lay right now, but both should drop into single figures by mid-season if they appear to be performing as well as they were last season.

I’m going to back Baltimore, Detroit, Atlanta, Houston and San Francisco E/W at the start of the season for minimum stakes and make adjustments throughout the season.

For the Bengals, I’m thinking of advising backing them to qualify for the playoffs at minimum stakes, although I need to do further research to see if there are any patterns or tendencies to look for when attempting to identify Wild Card teams.

As for individual games, I currently have five on the shortlist and I’ll post my thoughts on them nearer the weekend. Although I won’t be betting on the kickoff game, I think the Giants should beat the Cowboys.