Free Soccer Tips For Saturday 15th September

15 Sep

Today’s games are all interesting in their own way, but one thing unites them: it’s not obvious that the home teams are going to win, even though they’ve all been priced under evens.

Videoton and Gent probably have the best chance of all three points but even a double wouldn’t return much over evens so it’s another case of being creative. One thing I noticed whilst researching these games is that 0-3 is a very rare scoreline in games that fit my basic system: I immediately wondered if I’d stumbled on to a goal mine for layers, but that didn’t last very long when I took a look at the odds…so I’ve added the best price for 0-3 into the mini previews below for a laugh.

The updates may not be done until a lot later on today…so please be patient.

Sweden Allsvenskan

1pm GMT

Mjallby v GAIS

I’ve been on the wrong end of a few games involving GAIS over the last couple of years, but they’re in big trouble at the bottom of the Allsvenskan. We’re at the stage of the run in where they could theoretically still overtake Mjallby but GAIS have failed to win any of their last ten aways and look doomed. The problem with the hosts is that only Djurgarden (the most improved team in Sweden this season) and Goteborg (a shadow of their former selves) have drawn more games in the Allsvenskan than Mjallby have this season.

Recommendations: lay GAIS. HAM likes 2-1, 2-0, 0-2, 1-1, 0-0 as possible correct scores.

Best Price for 0-3: 80/1

Result: Mjallby 4-0 GAIS

Hungary OTP Bank NB1

1pm GMT

VIdeoton v Diosgyor

Vidi would be home bankers today if their price was more competitive. Diosgyor are classic example of a team that’s excellent at home and rubbish away: they’ve lost their last seven trips to Fehervar and have won three of their last 20 away games in the league.

Recommendation: lay Diosgyor but only if their odds fall below 7.00. Potential correct scores are 2-0, 2-1, AU, 1-0, 1-1 but I’m going to avoid a margin of victory bet – best guess would be Vidi by one or two.

Best price for 0-3: 200/1 (!)

Videoton 0-0 Diosgyor

nPower Championship 

3pm GMT

Burnley v Peterborough

Welcome to another installment of ‘Lay Peterborough’, a fortnightly show where I oppose The Posh. If they lose this, they could be six points adrift at the bottom of the Championship when the mighty Bristol City travel to the East Midlands on Tuesday night. Burnley aren’t that good: seven wins in the last 20 league games at Turf Moor.

Recommendation: lay Peterborough, have a nibble on 1-1 as the correct score. FYI: Darren Ferguson of Peterborough is 10/1 to be the next manager to ‘leave his post’, while Eddie Howe of Burnley is 16/1.

Best Price for 0-3: 80/1

Result: Burnley 5, Peterborough 2

Hungary OTP Bank NB1

3pm GMT

Paks v Siofok & Kecskemeti v Lombard Papa

Recommendation: lay the visitors in both games, they’re currently the bottom two sides in NB1. Incidentally, the Hungarian championship is going to be a cracker this season with five teams currently battling it out at the top – including newly promoted MTK Budapest and what appears to be a rejuvenated Honved side.

Best Price for 0-3: 80/1 for both games. There’s a pattern emerging isn’t there…

Results: Paks 4-1 Siofok, Kecskemeti 1-2 Papa

Belgium Jupiler Pro League

7pm GMT

Gent v Mechelen

Another game that looks incredibly one sided: Mechelen’s away record in the league is as bad as Diosgyor’s is in Hungary (three wins in the last 20) and the best they’ve been able to manage at Gent is two draws in the last ten meetings.

Recommendation: lay Mechelen, HAM points out that AU, 2-1, 3-1, 0-0, 2-0 should be considered, although I’d be a bit wary of the idea that the visitors won’t score. They’ve hit the net in 14 of their last 20 away league games and have scored in eight of their last ten trips to Gent. Both teams to score is another bet that could be worth striking in this game.

Best Price for 0-3: 150/1.

Result: Mechelen are proving very hard to predict. Gent 0-2 Mechelen.


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3 responses to “Free Soccer Tips For Saturday 15th September

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