Free Tips For Friday 24th February: Croatia Returns

Similar in some respects to the first cuckoo of Spring, the return of 1HNL is basically a sign that the ‘winter’ seasons will soon be over. The Belgian tips that are coming tomorrow are the last of the regular season and by the end of next month both the Norwegian and Swedish leagues will be underway: the next natural break is the European Championships, which I’ll probably watch as a fan rather than a punter.

Overall 1HNL is at the low scoring end of the European leagues and has largely been dominated by Dinamo Zagreb since Croatia became independent following the end of the Civil War: that doesn’t look like changing this season as they’re six points ahead of Hajduk Split and are unbackable at the current price. It’s interesting to note that the three of the clubs in the top four going into the break had won eight of the last nine titles.

Anyway, on to the first bet of the Spring…

Lokomotiva Zagreb v Zadar (4:00pm GMT)

When the league went on Winter break, the goals per game average was 2.4, which is pretty dire. To put that into perspective, Lokomotiva have kept 13 clean sheets in their last 20 league games at the Maksimir Stadium (which they share with Dinamo Zagreb) while Zadar have failed score in 11 of their last 20 away games.

This game falls squarely into the ‘over 1.5 but under 3.5 goals’ category but with stats like those mentioned above it’ll come as no surprise that the recommendation is under 3.5 goals.

Result: Lokomotiva 3, Zadar 0 – Zadar played most of the game with ten men after Antonio Mrsic was given a straight red card after 27 minutes.

Maritimo v Uniao de Leiria (8:15pm GMT)

Maritimo are automatically today’s home banker and probably justify that tag – all being well they should qualify for the Europa League but if they’re serious about that they need to win games like this one. They’ve lost twice in the league this season but those games were against Benfica and Braga, which is nothing to be ashamed of.

The visitors’ away form has collapsed since last season – they’ve lost eight of their ten away games and are averaging less than one goal a game. They’ve also got a poor record at Maritimo – they earned a point last season, but have lost twelve of their last fifteen visits to Funchal – and have been soundly beaten at Porto and Sporting Lisbon this season.

Recommendation: I can’t see Maritimo losing this game. Back them and lay Uniao de Leiria.

Result: it took Maritimo most of the game to score, but they won by a single goal in the end.