Free Football Tips For 14th December 2013

Sorry about the lack of a post last weekend, but it was my mother in law’s 70th birthday recently and most of the family spent a lot of time before it planning a surprise party for her. Luckily the secret was kept, which was amazing considering the circumstances 🙂

Just the Championship and League One so far as I’m still intrigued by the ‘Both Teams To Score’ concept at the moment and they’re the only competitions I follow where I’ve got that information available in the format I like it. I haven’t updated my Premier League stats yet but when I do I’ll update this post.

All kick offs at 15:00 GMT unless stated

Back To Lay

Blackburn (Championship) and Wolves (League One)

Both Teams To Score

Championship

Leicester v Burnley (12:15pm)

Bournemouth v Birmingham (nb)

Charlton v Derby

Huddersfield v Reading

Nottingham Forest v Ipswich

Watford v Sheffield Wednesday

League One

Bradford v Leyton Orient

Carlisle v Tranmere (nap)

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Free Football Tips For Saturday 8th December 2012

Will have to be brief today as I’m expected at my niece’s ‘Star Wars’ themed birthday party at 1:00pm.

They’ve all been checked, but I’m dividing them into two sections: results and goals.

Results:

Leicester and Rapid Bucharest to beat Barnsley and Otelul Galati respectively. I’m backing Rapid even though the last couple of times I’ve backed them they’ve lost. It looks as if they’re over their slump though.

I’ve cursed Rapid – they lost to Otelul Galati. Leicester drew with Barnsley – however, tiered lays on Betfair were matched so no damage done.

Goals:

Both Teams To Score:

Crystal Palace v Blackpool, Sheffield Wednesday v Bristol City, Mons v Anderlecht

Missed on one, but see below.

Over 2.5 Goals

Crystal Palace v Blackpool, Mons v Anderlecht, Mechelen v Lokeren

Hit all three.

More tomorrow. I’ve now got to finish my Lando Calrissian costume!

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Cardiff City v Sheffield Wednesday

On paper, this should be a walk in the nearby park for Cardiff City. Let’s take a look at the numbers though.

Cardiff: 9-0-0 at home this season, Sheffield Wednesday 1-2-7 away in the league.

HTH in the league at Cardiff (last 20): 11-4-5, with Cardiff winning four of the last six. There have been seven games in Cardiff since a draw.

The big problem with Cardiff’s current home record is that it’s too good to last and won’t go on forever. Their last home defeat was in the playoffs against West Ham but you’ve got to go back to last March for their last regular season home defeat. However, their home form is entirely consistent with what happened last season: they got off to a great start, but sometime around Christmas it all starts going wrong and they end up getting easily beaten in the playoffs. Something to remember.

Wednesday – managed by former Cardiff boss Dave Jones – have started badly in the Championship after promotion last season (one win in nine road trips) and have failed to score in four of those games.

The head to head numbers are interesting purely because a draw in Cardiff hasn’t happened for a while (March 1981) but Cardiff have won four of the last five meetings at home. Wednesday have lost both of their games against the top six this season, while an interesting indication of Cardiff’s potential strength is that three of their wins so far have been against other sides in the top six.

Correct scores are a bit of problem due to Wednesday not having played 20 consecutive games in the Championship, but there’s a clue in the games we have. It seems likely that Cardiff will probably win by one goal: a quick HAM analysis of the scores doesn’t give the five results I’d like, but points at a one goal win.

Recommendations: Cardiff’s next home game is against Peterborough so I’d be surprised if they don’t equal and then extend their record for home wins. Then it gets messy: visits from Crystal Palace and Millwall at Christmas could be the catalyst for their end of season wobbles. Having said that, there’s a slight nagging doubt in my mind about this one to be honest. If you’re going to play any of those bets above, underwrite the total amount by backing a Wednesday win. You never know.

However, I’m mostly convinced that backing Cardiff outright is the right call for this game. I’d also consider small bets on a Cardiff win by one goal, laying Sheffield Wednesday DNB (draw no bet) and trading both over 1.5 goals and under 3.5 goals. Wednesday have yet to concede more than three goals away from home this season and although Cardiff beat Burnley 4-0 at the end of October, just under half of their wins this season have come when they’ve scored two goals.

Result: Cardiff 1, Sheffield Wednesday 0. Winner scored in the 80th minute.

 

Free Football Tips For Saturday 17th November 2012

A very sparse day today, with only three games coming up – one of which involves being a little bit undisciplined.

nPower Championship

3:00pm

Nottingham Forest v Sheffield Wednesday

I’ve now opposed Wednesday twice in a row, which appears to indicate that they seem to have replaced Peterborough as the layer’s friend at the moment. However, Forest are flattering to deceive at the moment. I personally think Sean O’Driscoll is overrated as a manager – Forest have won only one of their last six home games in the Championship.

Forest: 3-3-2 at home this season, Wednesday 1-2-5 on the road.

Recommendation: lay Wednesday. I’d have recommended laying the draw, but Forest are draw specialists and can’t be trusted to win.

Result: Nottingham Forest 1, Sheffield Wednesday 0. And Forest didn’t score the goal.

Bristol City v Blackpool

WARNING: I’m a City fan and this information is provided ‘as is’. I don’t like betting on my own team, but if I’m going to suffer then I want to be paid for it and the team has been extraordinarily predictable recently. Not in a good way either.

Goals haven’t exactly been in short supply at Ashton Gate recently (13/20 home league games >2.5, 15/20 BTTS) and I don’t expect anything any different this Saturday. Blackpool’s record over the last 20 aways*: 13/20 >2.5, 12/20 BTTS, although strangely the head to head record at AG is somewhat supportive of BTTS (13/20) but not >2.5 (9/20).

HAM likes 1-1, AU, 1-3, 2-0 and 2-1 but as City have only kept clean sheets in 2/20 I’d leave 2-0 alone. Still, you never know.

Recommendation: over 1.5 goals looks inevitable, as does BTTS. That’s it.

Result: 1-1. Both goals came in the last ten minutes and Blackpool’s equaliser was an injury time penalty.

Belgium Jupiler Pro League

7:00pm

OH Leuven v Mons

OHL: 13/20 League/Home >2.5, Mons 15/20 League/Away >2.5

OHL: 16/20 League/Home BBTS, Mons 16/20 League/Away BTTS

HTH at Leuven (league only): 3/4 over 2.5 goals, 2/4 BTTS

HAM: no recommendation, but the most frequent are AU, 1-1, 2-2. 3-1. 2-3 and 3-2. There are goals in this game.

Recommendation: over 2.5 goals looks very promising. If you like the look of BTTS I’d put a lay in at 1.13 pre-match an then wait until the in play market drifts to 1.5 before backing it – IF if drifts that far.

Result: OHL 1, Mons 3 – Mons took the lead after two minutes but it wasn’t until the 82nd minute that over 2.5 goals was settled.

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Free Football Tips For Friday 9th November 2012

Back from a holiday in France with a couple of Friday night tips, one of which is the first time I’ve taken a look at one of the new clubs in the Championship.

Belgian Jupiler Pro League

7:30pm GMT

Sporting Lokeren v Standard Liege

Goals bet here – over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

I think it’s worth taking a risk on the >2.5 goals market even though the numbers aren’t exactly convincing: Lokeren are >2.5 goals in 11 of their last 20 home games in the league while Standard are >2.5 in 10 of their last 20 league games: the head to head is eight of the last 17 have been over >2.5. The advantage of taking over 2.5 goals is that it’s a comparatively low price and could be laid off for a profit or traded out for a small loss if there aren’t any early goals.

Both teams to score is far more convincing: Lokeren 14/20 (at home), Standard 10/20 (away), 12/17 in the H2H meetings at Lokeren including five of the last six.

Result: Lokeren 2, Standard Liege 1 – although it was a goal from Standard’s Jelle Van Damme with the last kick of the game that settled the bets.

nPower Championship

7:45pm GMT

Middlesbrough v Sheffield Wednesday

A short week for both teams after they played on Tuesday, but although Boro picked up a point at Nottingham Forest, Wednesday lost at home to Blackpool.

Middlesbrough are one of the most improved sides in the competition this season: considering they finished five points outside the playoffs last season I think they can make the next step based on their form so far in 2012/13. On the other hand, I thought Wednesday might struggle after being promoted from League 1 last season.

Middlesbrough: 5-1-1 at home this season, but they’re 10-5-5 over the last 20 games which may be why their price is currently so competitive.

Wednesday: 1-2-4 on the road this season, their only win came at Ipswich at the end of last month but that shouldn’t have come as too much of a surprise as Ipswich are genuine relegation candidates rather than a team struggling to come to terms with a new level of competition.

Head to head: 13-5-2, last Wednesday win came in 1991.

Recommendations: back Middlesbrough outright. No other bets on this game because I don’t think five games is a decent sample size for Sheffield Wednesday’s away form in the Championship with regard to other markets.

Result: Middlesbrough 3, Sheffield Wednesday 1