No point in trying to deny it, yesterday’s results were very poor. It’s not a case of back to the drawing board, but I’m increasingly concerned about the over/under 2.5 predictions. So although there’s a goals section today, you’ll have to scroll down…
Extra level of data today on the results recommendations: team to score first odds, which should give a reasonable indication of how strong the bet might be. From the prices I’ve seen it’s obvious that Betway are really pimping themselves for business at the moment – presumably it’s the annoying couple on the sofa driving their prices.
Opposing The Away Team (all 3pm kick offs)
Barclays Premier League
Southampton v Hull
Hull haven’t won at Southampton in the league since February 1951 and the Saints have won seven of the last ten meetings in Hampshire. The obvious red flag would be a Hull win.
Team to score first: all firms apart from Betway have Southamption under 1.5 to score first.
Recommendation: Southampton back to lay (NAP)
Southampton 4-1 Hull
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Sky Bet Championship
Blackpool v Ipswich
Ipswich have won two of their last ten league games at Blackpool and have lost both away games against teams in the current top ten in the Championship.
Red flag: Blackpool haven’t lost at home this season whilst Ipswich haven’t won away from home.
Team to score first: Blackpool 1.95 (Betway)
Recommendation: oppose Ipswich, but that red flag is worth considering as is the price for the hosts to score first. Laying Ipswich DNB may be the best bet.
Blackpool 2-3 Ipswich. Extra time winner for the Tractor Boys.
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Burnley v AFC Bournemouth
Bournemouth have never won at Burnley: today is their tenth attempt. Burnley haven’t lost at home so far this season – which is an obvious red flag – whilst the Cherries have lost three of their four away games against the current top five.
Team to score first: Burnley 1.57 (Boylesports) although Bet365 and BetVictor both have them at less than 1.5.
Recommendation: Burnley back to lay (NB)
Burnley 1-1 Bournemouth. Bournemouth scored first.
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Leicester v Nottingham Forest
Arguably the best game in the Championship today, but although Forest have only won twice at Leicester in the league in their last ten attempts, only one of the five games between the current top six has ended in an away win – Forest’s defeat at home to Blackpool last week.
Team to score first: Leicester 1.75 at both Betway and – significantly – Betfair.
Recommendation: Leicester are available at evens – which is about right – but I think laying Forest draw no bet might be preferable. This is not a clear-cut home win by any means.
Leicester 0-2 Nottingham Forest
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GOALS
I’ve added an extra layer of analysis here as well: this is what’s left from a long list of eleven games. May be worth avoiding these altogether as I’m trying something new.
Over 2.5 Goals
Bundesliga 1
Leverkusen v Hamburg (2:30pm)
Fairly happy about this one even though I recommended avoiding Hamburg in these markets. Could be a lot of goals here.
Bayer Leverkusen 5-3 Hamburg
Under 2.5 Goals
Premier League
Southampton v Hull (3:00pm)
See above
Norwich v West Ham (5:30pm)
Ligue 1
PSG v Nice (4:00pm)
PSG 3-1 Nice
Guingamp v Lille (7:00pm)
Updates will follow as soon as I get home from the FA Cup tie I’m attending.
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