Only two ‘Both Teams To Score’ tonight:
In the games at Leeds (Sky Bet Championship, 7:45pm) and West Brom (Barclay’s Premier League, 8:00pm)
Might have to have a ‘no bet’ weekend due to family activities, but if that’s the case I’ll let you know.
Tag Archives: Leeds
Free Football Tips For Saturday 23rd November
Bl**dy French football.
Here are today’s. In addition to the B2Ls, I’d also be surprised if Notts County and Crystal Palace won today – they may be worth laying. (Palace won at Hull, Notts lost at Shrewsbury)
Back To Lay
Barclay’s Premier League (3:00pm)
Newcastle 2, Norwich 1
Sky Bet Championship (3:00pm)
Leeds 2, Middlesbrough 1
QPR 1, Charlton 0
TIM Serie A (7:45pm)
Napoli 0, Parma 1
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GOALS – warning! Abandon hope all ye who enter here!
(Or at least do the opposite)
Over 2.5 Goals
Bundesliga 1 (2:30pm)
Augsburg 2, Hoffenheim 0
Under 2.5 Goals
Barclay’s Premier League (3:00pm)
Hull v Crystal Palace
Hull 0, Crystal Palace 1
Stoke v Sunderland
Stoke 2, Sunderland 0
France Ligue 1 Orange (7:45pm)
Montpellier v Guingamp
Montpellier 1, Guingamp 1
Related articles
- Free Football Tips For Saturday 23rd November (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)
Free Football Tips For Saturday 14th September
After last night’s unexpected goalfest at Tours, I’d be cautious about acting on my goals recommendations today. Will work on the games for tomorrow – only two of them – but as I wrote yesterday, I’ve got a birthday party tonight…
Saturday 14th September
1. Bundesliga (2:30pm)
Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg
Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away (Bundesliga only)
Leverkusen: 15-3-2 (90% undefeated, 75% win percentage)
As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the ‘Werkself‘ have only been beaten at home by Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga since the start of 2013
Wolfsburg: 7-5-8 (60% undefeated, 35% win percentage)
Last away win came at Werder Bremen in April, but they’re arguably at their most dangerous when they’ve lost their most recent away game. Over the last 20 games they’ve won four of the next six matches after an away defeat, but five of those seven wins came against teams that finished below them. However…on their day they are capable of beating anyone: they won at Borussia Dortmund in February.
Head to Head
RED ALERT. I went all the way back to October 1997 and couldn’t find one Wolfsburg win in the Bundesliga at Bayer Leverkusen. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but ruling a Wolfsburg win out completely is suicidal.
Goals
See warning above. Over 1.5 goals looks nailed on, but after that it’s murky. Wolfsburg aren’t a bad unit defensively – although they’ve only kept two clean sheets in their last ten aways, you need to score more than once to beat them – and Leverkusen have managed that in 14 of their last 20 homes.
Verdict
Bayer Leverkusen are capable of putting together long unbeaten home streaks but they’ve not managed six consecutive home wins since 2009. On the other side of the coin, Wolfsburg haven’t lost more than two consecutive away games for a while either (middle of the 11/12 season) so this doesn’t look as straightforward as it might appear at first. Back to lay trade with Bayer Leverkusen.
Bayer Leverkusen 3, Wolfsburg 1
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Championship (3:00pm)
Another game where current positions in the table may be worth disregarding.
L20 H v L20 Away (Championship Only)
Bolton 12-5-3 (85% unbeaten, 60% win percentage)
Wanderers have begun the season poorly but that looks like a scheduling issue more than them being a bad team – all four of their games so far have come against teams that are currently in the top half of the table. There’s plenty of time to turn the current situation around – last season they finished 8-2-1 against the top half, losing only to Crystal Palace…which in a backhanded way suggests backing QPR for promotion.
Leeds 3-7-10 (50% unbeaten, 15% win percentage)
Two of those three wins have come in the last three games, which suggests that Brian McDermott is having an impact at Elland Road. The truth is that Leeds probably couldn’t have been any worse away from home – between October and April, they only won at Huddersfield, who were pretty awful themselves.
HTH (League Only at Bolton)
Between April 1983 and December 2002 Leeds won five consecutive league games at Bolton but the tide appears to be going the other way. The big, historical picture goes against Leeds: since April 1931 they’ve won six times in twenty league meetings.
Goals
Over 2.5 looks possible. Leeds have a difficult relationship with the concept of defending away from home (two clean sheets since last October) and given the head to head history of this game (the last ten meetings have produced an average of 3.3 goals per game) this looks possible. May be worth taking a chance on both teams to score.
Verdict
I’m not sure I’d want to back Bolton outright at their current odds, which are currently at the top end of the range I’d normally look at for a straight win. This is one of those rare games when backing the hosts in the draw no bet market looks like a good a idea. I’d also have a small play in the BTTS market.
Bolton 0, Leeds 1. Not a good sign for Bolton.
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Ipswich v Middlesbrough
L20H v L20A (Championship Only)
Ipswich: 11-3-6 (70% undefeated, 55% win percentage)
Ipswich haven’t lost more than two consecutive home games since last October and they normally achieve a positive result after a negative one at home.
Middlesbrough 3-4-13 (35% undefeated, 15% win percentage)
One swallow doesn’t make a swallow, just as a two game unbeaten run away from home doesn’t mean Boro will be playing in the Premier League next season, although to be fair it’s the first time Tony Mowbray‘s side haven’t lost more than once away from home since last November. They’ve lost seven of their last ten aways.
HTH (Last 20 in the League at Ipwich)
Three wins in 20 visits to Portman Road for league games for Middlesbrough since 1975, although Ipswich have only won four of the last ten. On that basis a draw is a very strong possibility.
Goals
Trading over 2.5 might work, but only four of the last ten head to head at Ipswich have produced that many goals and Boro have tightened up a little bit away from home – which to be honest they needed to.
Verdict
Lay Middlesbrough draw no bet or possibly a back to lay trade on Ipswich. Keep away from the goals.
Ipswich 3, Middlesbrough 1
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France Ligue 1 (7:00pm BST)
Montpellier v Reims
L20H v L20A (Ligue 1 Only)
Montpellier: 12-5-3 (85% undefeated, 60% win percentage)
8-2-1 in home games against teams that finished below them last season: had an eight game home winning streak last season but since then have struggled to put back to back victories together in front of their own fans.
Reims: 3-6-11 (45% undefeated, 15% win percentage)
0-5-8 in away games against teams that finished above them in 2012/13, but look at the number of drawn games – almost 40%. That includes ties at Marseille and Bordeaux, both of whom finished above Montpellier. However, they’ve not won consecutive away games since being promoted back to Ligue 1 – and they won at Marseille last time out.
Head to Head in the league at Montpellier
RED ALERT: no Reims wins in the last seven, but four of those have games have finished all square.
Goals
If you can get anything better than 2.22 for Over 2.5 goals take it, but I think there’s a good chance that this one will be low scoring. See the warning at the top of the page though.
Verdict
Trade Montpellier in the draw no bet market.
Result: 0-0 (void) although good information – Reims are not to be understimated.
Free Football Tips For Tuesday 12th March
A few this evening, would have been more but due to the weird weather in the UK there have been a few postponements in the north of England. This next bit isn’t shameless self promotion, but I’m currently in the top ten in the ‘UK Lower Leagues’ competition on OLBG.com and 48th in the ‘Championship’ competition.
The flipside of that: my French tips are not doing so well :-0
Home Wins
Cardiff, Leeds (nPower Championship), Yeovil (nPower League 1)
0/3. Yeovil were leading 2-0 at one point but were pegged back by Crawley. Leeds and Cardiff were both losing but managed to earn a point.
Away Wins
Brighton (nPower Championship), Fleetwood, Burton Albion, Port Vale (all nPower League 2)
2/4. Fleetwood and Burton both won (Burton had to come from behind) but Brighton and Port Vale lost.
Overall: 2/7. Very poor, although the two away wins were useful.
Related articles
- Free nPower Football League Tips For 26th February 2013 (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)
- Free Football Tips For Saturday 2nd March 2013 (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)
- Free Football Tips For 19th February 2013 (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)
- Free Football League Tips For Tuesday 12th February 2013 (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)
- Free Football Tips For Saturday 19th January (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)
- Free Football Tips For Saturday 9th February 2013 (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)
Super League and Six Nations Tips
Great weekend coming up, so let’s get to it and start with both codes of Rugby.
Super League
The two main markets reflect the regular and post season aspect of the competition and this is where it could get a bit tricky. The ‘League Leaders’ (ie the team at the top of the table when the regular season finishes and before the playoffs start) have won both the regular season and the Grand Final in eight of the 14 seasons since Super League started but that’s happened in only half of the last six campaigns.
In terms of the regular season you can’t really rule out any of the teams that finished in the top six last season but looking at the teams that have been successful since 1998 it looks likely that it’ll be a shootout between Leeds Rhinos, St. Helens & Wigan Warriors with the latter pair looking the most likely to me. Leeds’ aim seems to qualifying for the playoffs rather than wining the regular season and this strategy has paid off with four Grand Final wins in the last five seasons: only one of those wins came in the same season they won the regular season competition.
I’m afraid I’m going to have to write off Warrington Wolves – repeat regular season winners don’t normally happen. That doesn’t mean the Wolves won’t make the playoffs though.
Recommendation: dutch St. Helens & Wigan to win the regular season competition.
Grand Final Winners
I’m tempted to recommend laying whoever wins the Regular Season for the Grand Final for the reasons I mentioned above, but if St. Helens or Wigan win the League Leaders Shield I wouldn’t be surprised if they went on to win the whole thing. I think it’s a case of wait and see, but I’d also be prepared to back Leeds now in order to lay them at a smaller price if/when they reach the playoffs.
Six Nations
Although it’s great fun to drink beer to, the Six Nations is usually three tournaments in one. The first tournament is whether England, France or Ireland will win it, the second is whether Wales want to join them and the third is whether Scotland will be worse than Italy or not.
Unfortunately only three countries have realistic chances of winning the tournament – seven of the twelve winners of the tournament since it expanded in 2000 finished in the top three positions in the previous season, which would normally automatically rule in England, France and Ireland.
However 1:
The recent upheaval in the English coaching staff – which in turn has lead to the assembly of a developmental squad – means England can more or less be ruled out of contention.
However 2:
Wales have won the title more times than Ireland, who don’t seem to be able to get over the hump – the Irish have finished runners up in exactly half of the Six Nations Tournaments. Wales’ current price seems to be based on their performance in last year’s World Cup rather than their record in the Six Nations over the last decade.
Which leaves France, who reached the World Cup final back in the Autumn. They’re a decent price right now, which should shorten considerably if they hammer Italy on Saturday afternoon.
The other market worth considering is if there’ll be a grand slam or a triple crown – my opinion is probably not.
Recommendation: France to win the Six Nations. If that’s the case, then it’s also worth backing a France/Ireland straight forecast – France have won the title five times and the Irish have finished behind them in four of those five wins,.
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