I think it’s fair to say that attention will be elsewhere today and justifiably so. I’m not a Liverpool fan, but I am a football fan and what happened at Hillsborough was a disgrace.
Italy TIM Serie A
2:00pm GMT
Atalanta v Palermo
One away win in 20 league games for the visitors, but they’ve got reasonable form in the last few meetings at Atalanta and have a new manager so be careful. A low scoring game in prospect, HAM suggests 1-0, 0-0 (which could come up), 1-1, 2-0 and AU which also indicates under 3.5 goals.
Recommendation: lay Palermo, back under 3.5 goals (see below for a possible treble) and a one point bet on ‘No Goalscorer’
Result: Atalanta 1, Palermo 0, the goal came from Cristian Raimondi after 88 minutes…
4:00pm
Portugal Liga Zon Sagres
Nacional v Pacos de Ferreira
The visitors have been much better away from home recently, only losing four of their last ten games and they’re currently sitting in third place whilst Nacional are bottom of the table without a win. Here’s the catch: Pacos de Ferreira have won once at Nacional in the last ten games and the hosts have played precisely one home game so far…which they didn’t lose. In fact, they’ve only lost six of their last 20 home games in the league.
Recommendation: lay Pacos de Ferreira draw no bet
Result: 3-3 with a late equaliser from the visitors. Very close.
Barclay’s Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur v QPR
In other circumstances, Spurs would be home bankers today and although I can’t see them losing, there’s a bit of a question mark over whether they’ll win. They’ve only won half of their last ten league games at White Hart Lane and having starting this season with draws against WBA and Norwich there’s a case to be made that they’re not the team they used to be under Harry Redknapp. QPR are just horrible away from home so it’s easy to oppose them, but although I doubt if they’ll win, that doesn’t mean a point is beyond them.
Over 1.5 goals looks highly likely, but HAM seems to suggest that the outcome may depend on how long it takes Spurs to score and there’s already some evidence that it’s taking them longer to do so under the guidance of AVB. 1-1. 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 and 3-2 are all possibilities.
Recommendation: laying QPR is risky due to the current price and so it’s time to be creative. I’d be very surprised if there’s not a goal in the first half an hour, so I’m going to dutch 0-15 minutes and 16-30 minutes in the ‘time of first goal markets’ – that’s based on QPR’s defending as much as Spurs’ prowess going forward.
Result: Spurs 2. QPR 1. Rangers took the lead…in the 33rd minute. Just missed.
5:00pm
Romania Liga I Bergenbier
Astra Giurgiu v Gaz Metan Medias
Hosts should be about evens for this because it’s worth pointing out that they’ve not won three consecutive league games at home since April 2011 and a win today would equal that feat. The visitors have won four of their last 20 games away from home in the league, but this looks like a low scoring game with as much chance of a scoreless draw as there is in the Atalanta/Palermo game earlier.
Recommendation: under 3.5 goals with possibly a one point bet on 0-0 as a correct score. There’s no market for ‘no goalscorer’ because – let’s face it – this is an obscure game nobody cares about 🙂
Result: Astra went mad in the second half and won 4-0, the last goal came three minutes before the end. Laying Gaz Metan Medias was the right call though so that’ll be neutral.
6:00pm
Portugal Liga Zon Sagres
Sporting Braga v Rio Ave
Braga should win this and complete the treble I suggested yesterday, but I wouldn’t recommend the price for the win. The hosts to win by one goal should be considered as this looks like a game without many goals (HAM comes up with 1-0, 2-1, AU, 2-0 and 0-1), but there’s also a possibility that Rio Ave may not score – something they’ve failed to do in seven of their last ten visits to Braga.
Recommendation: one point on Braga to win to nil, lay Rio Ave draw no bet. Under 3.5 goals features in the treble below.
Result: Braga 4, Rio Ave 1 – the treble I mentioned yesterday landed, as did a lay of under 3.5 goals (which was unexpected) and the AU mentioned above.
7:45pm
Italy TIM Serie A
Lazio v Genoa
Almost recommended a Lazio win, but Genoa won there last season and although the visitors are lousy on the road generally, they’ve gone thirteen away games without a win (four consecutive defeats) and that’s the kind of streak you have to keep an eye on sometimes. HAM adds a note of caution: 1-0, AU, 1-1, 1-2 and 2-0 look likely scorelines, so it’s a similar kind of game to Spurs v QPR in that respect as it seems to depend on how long it takes Lazio to score to indicate the outcome: over 1.5 goals also looks likely.
Recommendation: lay Genoa draw no bet, over 1.5 goals.
Result: Genoa do it again – they won 1-0.
Multiples:
I’ve already laid Braga to cover the Chelsea/Porto/Braga treble, but there’s a goals bet that looks as if it may work if combined:
Under 3.5 goals at Atalanta, Astra Giurgiu and Braga – would pay just under evens but might be worth doing. Inexpensive lays are available on Betfair.
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