Today’s tips below, but first of all some strategy. Even though I’ve got five home wins below, I don’t think they’re worth playing as a Lucky 31, Canadian or Super Yankee because I’d be surprised if they all won, but I’ll come to that in a minute.
However, Cheltenham are around evens and look as if they might be tradeable. If I back them at 2.20 (generally available) I’d consider putting in a lay at 1.60, which could be matched if they score first. In which case, the following strategy should payoff:
Backing Cheltenham for £20 at 2.20. If they win: £44 (£24 profit).
Laying Cheltenham at 1.60 for £28. If they win, I’d lose £16.80, which would leave me with £6.97 profit overall. However, let’s say Cheltenham take the lead and Chesterfield equalise and the game ends in a draw. If the lay had been matched, then I’d win my stake back.
I used this strategy twice on Sunday with the goals bets – so instead of taking a hit on the two results that went against me, the ‘insurance’ meant I got my money back with a bit extra on top.
In that case, a multiple could make more sense. A Super Yankee with a total stake of £20 with Bet365 this morning would return almost £181, but that depends on all five teams winning and as I wrote earlier, I’d be surprised if they did. At the very least, I’d want my stake back but rather than risking double figures lays on each game, I’ll divide the stake (£20) across all five games so the most I’d lose on each would be £4.
What I’ll do today is I’ll put the prices I’ll lay the teams at in brackets next to them. If I was playing these games in exactly the same way as I do with horse racing, I’d probably discount Crystal Palace from the home wins and Rotherham completely. However, that could easily backfire if they both win.
All over the tips below should be between 1.50 and 3. If anything goes under 1.50, don’t play it and if Rotherham drift to beyond 3.00 before kick off I’d leave them alone too.
Home wins:
Cardiff (1.32), Leicester (1.33), Millwall (1.60), Cheltenham (1.60) and Crystal Palace (1.68)
Worth pointing out that four of the last five games between Palace and Hull at Selhurst Park have been drawn. The safer bet may the goals (see below)
Cheltenham and Crystal Palace did the business. 2/4
Away wins:
Rotherham (1.87) – longshot
Oxford 0, Rotherham 4 3/5
Over 2.5 Goals:
Bristol City v Brighton (1.37)*, Watford v Sheffield Wednesday (1.40)
City 0, Brighton 0. Watford 2, Wednesday 1. 4/6
Under 2.5 Goals:
Crystal Palace (1.42), Hartlepool (1.36), Milton Keynes (1.32), Stevenage (1.33) and Cheltenham (1.29)
Hartlepool, Stevenage and Cheltenham all came through. 7/11
Both Teams To Score:
Bristol City (1.37)*, Watford v Sheffield Wednesday (1.37)
Only 1/2 here for an overall count of 8/13. 61% strike rate overall.
*I’m not playing this due to the ‘don’t back your own team’ rule.
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