HJK Helsinki v Jaro
First thing to remember is that Jaro are no mugs – even though they’ve only managed one victory against HJK in their last ten trips to the capital, they’ve won five of their last ten aways going back to last season. Current price for the hosts is under 1.5, so arguably the most profitable option is laying Jaro draw no bet.
Result: HJK 1, Jaro 0
MyPa v ROPS
Very tentative bet here – under 3.5 goals. MyPa haven’t scored in either of their two home games so far and ROPS failed to score at Honka in their last away game. League average so far is 2.33 goals per game so this could be a decent prospect.
Result: MyPa 0, ROPS 4. MyPa were down to 10 men after 38 minutes, but the old adage about playing ten men being harder than playing 11 obviously hasn’t reached Rovaniemi yet.
TROMSO v Viking
Tromso probably won’t lose this match, which isn’t quite the same as saying that they’ll win it – they’ve only beaten the visitors five times in their last ten league meetings at the Alfheim Stadium, but they’ve also stopped them scoring five times. Recommendations: Tromso draw no bet and under 3.5 goals – both of them based TIF’s formidable defensive record.
Result: Tromso 3, Viking 1. Classic split package there.
nPower Football League 1 Playoff 2nd Leg
Peterborough v MK Dons
It’s entirely possible that by next Monday, MK Dons and AFC Wimbledon might only be one division apart but that’s not what we’re interested in today. The intriguing aspect of this game is that the visitors don’t need to win to qualify for the final against Huddersfield: two of the three possible outcomes are detrimental to Peterborough.
Having said that, an MK Dons win looks unlikely (they lost all five away games against the other top six clubs this season) but they can be encouraged that Peterborough failed to win three of their five home games against the same opponents. Recommendation number 1: leave the winners and qualification markets alone, although I’m going on the record to say that a draw is the least likely result.
It’s the goals market that everyone else seems to be dabbling in and it’s easy to see why – the numbers are bonkers. Peterborough scored more than 2.5 goals in 95% of their home league games, over 60% of games at London Road were over 3.5 goals and two of their five clean sheets at home came against teams that were relegated. MK Dons weren’t quite as spectacular away from Buckinghamshire, but 56% of their away games featured over 2.5 goals.
Recommendations: for such a potential goal fest, over 2.5 goals is competitively priced for a change, so I’d advise taking it. Laying 1-1 is also worth looking at – remember, Peterborough need a win – and both teams to score looks like a no-brainer.
But beware the Black Swan event – the scoreless draw. It could happen…
Result: Peterborough 2, Milton Keynes 0.
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