English football returns with the newly re-branded Sky Bet Football League kicked off on Friday night with the game between Sheffield United and Notts County which ended 2-1 to the hosts.
The plan this season is to start with UK games and then move into the obscurer backwaters of European football if nothing sticks out from either England or Scotland. So let’s go.
Sky Bet Championship
Nottingham Forest v Huddersfield (Saturday 3rd August, 3:00pm BST)
I’d be happier if Forest were nearer evens, but according to my main set of numbers they were the most improved side in the Championship last season and won the corresponding game last season 6-1. Only two clubs conceded more goals than Huddersfield did in last season’s Championship and they’re both playing in League One this season.
Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away
Forest: 8-7-5
Huddersfield: 7-2-11
This is why I think Forest should be nearer evens. They only won four of their last ten league games at the City Ground in 2012/13 (including that 6-1 win) so although they’re hard to beat at home, that doesn’t mean they’ll win this game that easily. Huddersfield were up against it last season but won four of their last ten aways to avoid relegation – but lost eight of their ten aways against the top ten in the Championship last season.
Head To Head
It’s only been comparatively recently that Forest have established any kind of dominance over Huddersfield at the City Ground. Forest have won the last four games, but before that had only won four games from 16 going all the way back to March 1912.
Goals
BTTS and over 2.5 goals look likely, but I’m not really looking at that aspect of this game.
Verdict
Lay Huddersfield. I don’t think there’s any value in backing Forest unless or until they drift to evens and as I’m already going to a game that afternoon I’ll not be able to monitor the situation.
(other Championship game to watch out for: Middlesbrough v Leicester could be a surprise)
Result: Nottingham Forest 1, Huddersfield 0
Sky Bet League 1
Walsall v Tranmere (3:00pm BST)
Could conceivably go either way, but there are strong trends in the recent form of both sides.
Last 20 Home v Last 20 Away
Walsall: 9-7-4
Tranmere: 8-2-10
Walsall haven’t lost at home in the league since last November, which is a pretty impressive record. Tranmere – who looked like promotion candidates at one point – lost eight of their last ten away games including the last six on the trot.
Head To Head (At Walsall)
Walsall have an advantage in this respect, although it’s been a while since the Saddlers have beaten Tranmere in consecutive league games (December 1978 and April 1980). Tranmere have won half of their last ten visits to Walsall in the football league, but from a long term perspective my guess is that the tide is turning Walsall’s way.
Goals
Avoid. Probably under 2.5, 14 of the last 20 HTH league games between the pair at Walsall have finished under 2.5 without both teams scoring.
Verdict
I think there’s enough evidence to back Walsall, but I’d be looking at a trade rather than an outright win.
(one to look out for: Carlisle v Leyton Orient)
Result: Walsall 3, Tranmere Rovers 1.
Sky Bet League 2
Wycombe v Morecambe (Saturday 3rd August, 3:00pm BST)
Looks more like a game that Morecambe won’t win rather than Wycombe will win, but let’s take a look.
Last 20 Home and Away
Wycombe 8-6-6, Morecambe 5-3-12
The hosts don’t lose at Adams Park that often, but they’re inconsistent and seem to be vulnerable after draws – their last two home games of 2012/13 ended all square. Morecambe won three consecutive away games in January and February and also ended with a win in their last away game.
Head To Head (At Wycombe)
Not much to go on (only four league games between the clubs in Buckinghamshire) but Morecambe have never won at Wycombe. Caveat emptor: there’s always a first time.
Goals
No analysis due to shortage of head to head games. I’d normally need at least six games to run an analysis. However…laying 0-0 looks like a no-brainer.
Verdict
Wycombe’s current price is pretty much where I’d expect it to be, although like the Walsall game I think I’m going to recommend a back to lay trade on Wanderers.
Result: Wycombe 1, Morecambe 0
(In the games to watch out for, Middlesbrough lost 1-2 at home to Leicester, but Leyton Orient won 5-1 at Carlisle)
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Additional games that came up but I won’t be previewing:
Viking to beat Lillestrom (Norwegian Eliteserien 5:00pm BST) and Zulte Waregem to beat KV Kortrijk (Belgian Jupiler League 7:30pm)
Related articles
- Free Football Tips Friday 2nd August 2013 (tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com)
Trader64's Free Soccer Betting Advice 